The Exploration Of Extreme Climate Space-time Aggregation Warning Model

Objectives:Discuss the practical application of space-time aggregation monitoring methodology in warning extreme climate and analyze the results through wavelet transform.At the same time,initially attempt to discuss the values of this model in early warning of extreme climate,and provide the Reference for the establishment of extreme climate warning monitoring system and the analysis of the extreme climate pattern.Methods:Take the Data about Daily precipitation and temperature was collected from 34 observatories of chongqing area from 1961-2005,and make a retrospective search of extreme climate aggregation,and then compare the results with actual situations,evaluate the values of aggregation warning model,analyze the results in wavelet transform in order to find the Potential pattern of climate aggregation in chongqing area.Results:The data results of precipitation aggregation in these areas through space-time scansion methods show that these areas take an unusual precipitation aggregation in different rates in past 45 years.Add the data of basal precipitation threshold,the model can early warning extreme precipitation,but the precision can be improved.For the Daily average temperatures,this model is not an effective application.To analyze the situation of Precipitation aggregation through wavelet transform,we find that there is a cyclical variation pattern when climate happens an extreme aggregation.Unusual climates in each area have the similar periods but show different characteristics. Conclusions:The exploration of Extreme climate space-time aggregation can really describe the possibility of Extreme climate;this is feasible to detect an early warning precipitation through space-time scansion model.But it's a long way for intensive study the daily average temperatures aggregation.The studies in extreme Precipitation in each area through wavelet transform show that period analysis of aggregations has more practical effect in the early warning of extreme Precipitation than general sequential analysis Climate prediction.This model can provide a valuable reference for the possibility of extreme climate.