Energy Intensity Target Estimation And Decomposition Of Henan For 12^th FYP

As a binding index for economy development, a reasonable energy efficiency target may promote structure adjustment in these overcapacity industries, accelerate the change of economic growth mode for more orderly development, and promote GHG emission reduction. In 11th five years, by formulateing 20% energy intensity target and carrying out target responsibility system, energy intensities dropped obviously. But this target formulated without reasonable analysis and calculation. As a result, this target was hard to operate. So it is significant to set a new energy intensity target for 12th years plan by a scientific way.This study estiamates Henan's and its cities'economic development and energy consumption increase during 12th years, by building energy-economy model. And then Henan's energy intensity target is formulated. This study contains two parts:energy intensity target estimation and target decomposition. At first, scenarios analysis is used for estimating Henan's total energy intensity target and analyzing energy saving potential. Different scenarios are based on possible energy saving plans for Henan in furture. In this study four different scenrios are set, they are implement scenario, structure optimization scenario, freezing scenario, and energy saving scenario. According to comparative analysis among scenarios, energy intensity target of Henan for 12th FYP is formulated considering realizability and rationality comprehensively. Then city-level targets are estimated with triptych approach. Each city's total energy consumption is analyzed from three sectors:industry, residentr and other for every city. The energy efficiency comprehensive evaluation based on AHP is used for evaluating cities'energy efficiency situation in order to improve the result of triptych. At last energy intensity target allocation plan is formulated.As the result of analysis and estimation, the drop rate of Henan's energy intensity as follows:17% at implement scenario,21% at optimization scenario,8% at freezing scenario and 22% at energy saving scenario. According to economy development and realizability, provincial energy efficiency target for 12th years is that in the end of 2015, energy intensity will drop by 17% in comparison with that in 2010. And the drop rates of city-level targets will be in the range from 12% to 15%.