Research On The Prediction Of Oil Spill Based On GIS In Bohai Bay

Marine oil spill is a kind of crisis that huge amounts of oil dump into the sea due to natural or anthropic factor in the process of mining and transportation. With the rapid development of marine oil exploitation and transportation, oil spill accidents increase dramatically. Only in the first quarters of 2010, three serious accidents including drilling platform explosion in the Gulf of Mexico, strait oil spill in Singapore and oil spill in the Dalian Gulf of China happened earth-shatteringly, causing great financial losses and inestimable ecological disasters. Repeated oil spill accidents pose grave threat to the marine ecological environment and long-term influence in society and economy. The analysis and forecast of oil spill trajectory is the basis of accident management and decision-making. In order to reach the maximum reduction of losses caused by oil spill accidents, it is quite necessary to make a scientific prediction to the dynamic change of oil spill.Concentrating on Bohai bay and using FVCOM model and MM5 model to simulate flow field and wind field respectively, this paper employed the concept of oil parcel to simulate the trajectory and diffusion area of oil spill on the basis of considering dynamic and non-dynamic process of oil spill circumstance in order to build dynamic oil spill model on Fortran language platform and then generate dynamic link library file. The oil spill model can not only be utilized to predict variation trend of oil spill trajectory and area by time but also quantitatively describe the variation of concentration, solubility, evaporation, viscosity, and density of spilled oil in seawater.The technology of GIS has been employed in developed countries to progress the oil spill prediction system, which utilizes GIS to simulate and reproduce the process of oil spill. GIS, as a kind of computer system in the collection, storage, management, analysis, display and the application of geographic information, is a general technology in analyze and dispose massive geographic data. ComGIS, aiming at the application of object technology and component technology, divides GIS into various functional modules and furthermore embeds other models so as to expand GIS application. This paper intends to conduct the ComGIS exploitation using Visual Studio.net language context on the basis of ArcEngine Control. According to the principles of calling convention matching and numerical transferring between Visual Studio.net and Fortran, the DLL of dynamic oil spill model is embedded and the integration of GIS system and oil spill model is realized. Consequently, the prediction system of oil spill in Bohai Bay is exploited.The customer-friendly interface is designed to realize man machine interactive function and further to operate Fortran oil spill model. During the whole computer process, the Fortran application is running in the background, forming an oil spill prediction system with strong operability and friend interface. Without any professional Fortran and GIS knowledge but Inputting the parameters of oil spill accident, the DLL will conduct automatic operation and build the final prediction file of oil spill accident. After reading the files of flow field and wind field, dynamical simulation of oil spill trajectory and diffusion area can be carried out. The predication outcome file of oil spill trajectory, together with the file of variation trend of concentration, solubility, evaporation, viscosity, and density of spilled oil by time can also be obtained. The trajectory of oil spill can be transferred into KML mode displayed via Google Earth, which provide supporting measures for emergency management of oil spill. By means of example verification, this system can be used as an accurate dynamical predication to oil spill, proving a sound extension potential.