Research And Applications On Water Quality Prediction And Simulation In Long-distance Water Conveyance System

Water is a special kind of resources, an important material foundation for achieving sustainable development. In recent years, with the rapid development of our economy and the rapid increase in population, shortage of water resources and water environmental pollution problems have become more and more serious and become unavoidable difficulties for the social and economic sustainable development. To improve the allocation of water resources and make use of water resources adequately and reasonably, Country will implement the south-to-north water diversion project. The middle-route project of south-to-north water diversion is the important part of south-to-north water diversion project. It can ease water shortage of Beijing, Tianjin and North China Region; improve the ecological environment of the water-receiving areas and promote sustainable and stable economic and social development of North China Region.This paper introduced fuzzy mathematical theory into the water quality assessment and used improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate water quality of source of the middle-route project and some storage reservoirs along the middle-route project, identifying the main pollution factor of each reservoir; the seasonal Kendall test method was used to analyze water quality trends in recent years of each reservoir; on the basis of the theory of grey, water quality prediction model of source of the middle-route project was established and its accuracy and reasonableness was tested by measured data; according to the relevant literature and the existing foundation material, water quality models of the main canal and a section of the Danjiangkou Reservoir were established; water security of storage reservoirs along the middle-route project was assessed based on MATLAB; in order to ensure the water security of the middle-route project of south-to-north water diversion, water quality protection measures were proposed according to pollution situation and pollution characteristics of the reservoirs and the factors possible to influence water quality of the main canal.In this paper, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation software about surface water, water quality trend analysis software based on the seasonal Kendall test method and water security evaluation software were worked out based on MATLAB. This is helpful to grasp the water quality information rapidly and accurately and provide the basis for water management or scheduling timely.