Research On The Risk Evaluation Of Water Inrush In Chazhuang Coal Mine

The water inrush in coal mine is one of significant mine disasters. For the scientific development of whole mine area, the study of risk assessment of water bursting in the complicated conditions is of great value both theoretically and practically.Analyze and summarize the present situation at home and abroad of research on the risk assessment of the water bursting. Using risk analysis theory to definite the concept and connotation of the risk assessment of the water bursting, the evaluation formula is also given.Analyze the mechanism and law of water bursting, preliminary assessment indexes effecting on the probability of the water bursting are defined. By using ECM-AHP method, the main indexes effecting on the probability of the water bursting are picked out. On the basic of DRASTIC assessment method on groundwater vulnerability, the grading index and scoring table of the water bursting under the mine floor are set up. With ArcGIS9.3 software, thematic map of each main index and multiplex map of main indexes overlaid are plotted. Use AHP method to decide the weight of each main index. Use mathematical model of adding sum weighted to comprehensively evaluate the probability of the water bursting. The assessment results are classified five grades by ArcGIS9.3 software in the whole mine area.Basic on the appraisal method for dam-break of tailing wasteland, the severity indexes are creatively chosen, such as mining thickness, length of working face, coal quality, the water supply and karst water pressure. Using for reference of all the assessment of the probability of the water bursting under the mine floor to classify the severity of the consequences of water bursting five grades in the whole mine area.According to the formula of risk assessment, Overlay maps of the probability and the severity of the water bursting. And the whole mine area is classified five grades according to the comprehensive index number of risk assessment. The reasons of the risk assessment result are analyzed and advices of risk management are given.