Risk Analysis On The Leakage Incident Of Natural Gas Pipeline

According to the Twelfth Five-Year Guideline of China, the goal ofnatural gas consumption is set to be260billion cubic meterspreliminarily and the proportion of all energy consumption rises from4%to8.3%, which means that China will enter a stage of rapid developmentof natural gas industry in next years. With the gradual development ofChina's gas industry infrastructure, natural gas is becoming increasinglypopular in millions of household. The safe operation of natual gaspipeline has an important practical significance on the steadydevelopment of economic and social life.This article gives a brief review on the natural gas industry andintroduction of typical hazardous gas dispersion models and methods ofquantitative risk analysis. Leakage incidents of West-East natural gastransmission project are risk analyzed. The initial momentum andbuoyancy of the leaked gas are taken into consideration and a suitableleakage source model is established. The diffusion mechanism of natural gas is described by using Gaussian model and CFD code.Hydrogen sulfide poisoning and jet fire are among the most seriousaccidents caused by gas leakage. Based on a large number of accidentstatistics, a risk analysis method for the above accidents is proposed,which takes into account of the probit equation, scope of the damage anddispersion model. The individual risks and corresponding social riskcurves are obtained and hazardous areas at different leakage holes areclassified.For the accident of hydrogen sulfide poisoning, the available safeescape time varying with acceptable risk levels and regions is obtained byanalyzing the effect of exposure time on the risk according to thedispersion process of hazardous gas. The proposed method can providesupports for the safety management and maintenance of natural gaspipeline as well as evacuation in the accidents.