Risk Assessment Of Landslide Of Three Gorges And Application Research

After the hydraulic project of the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River is completed,the water level in front of the dam of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area will be raisedfrom the now several tens of meters to175meters. Under the fluctuation of water leveland migration, a great deal of new landslides were evoked and a large number of oldlandslide were excited, huge landslide disasters have occurred, seriously endangerpeople’s lives, property and the normal production with living order such as transport ofshipping and road, construction of urban and rural, relocation and resettlement. So,study on risk assessment of landslide is essential to the emergency management anddecision. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir as the research object, risk assessmentmodel applicable to the Three Gorges Reservoir is built, and it is applied to the Jinquanlandslide of Kaixian, the main research work is following:Based on the Analysis of the system of landslide hazard and the relationshipbetween the elements, the paper consider that risk assessment of landslide hazardinclude hazard evaluation and vulnerability evaluation.For the harzard analysis, failure probability, landslide activity intensity andlandslide surge height are selected as the evaluation indices. The three kinds ofevaluation indicators from the Monte Carlo simulation method based on reliabilitytheory, the evaluation method and the proposed method of American experience in civilengineering department, the risk grade of hazard evaluation is determined by analysistable.For the vulnerability analysis, based on the division of disaster bodies of the ThreeGorges Reservoir，vulnerability of human, vulnerability of land resources and thevulnerability of economy are selected as evaluation index. The risk grade ofvulnerability evaluation is determined by ratio of the landslide to Chongqing.The assessment model is used for the risk assessment of Jinquan landslide ofKaixian. According to the study of the specific area, by using Analytic HierarchyProcess-fuzzy clustering, the risk grade of hazard evaluation and vulnerabilityevaluation are Ⅳ and Ⅴ. The final judgment of the risk grade is Ⅳ, compared to thetreatment scheme, the input-output ratio is greater than1which is considered reasonable. Thetechnique and method adopted and the idea have some value and use for reference toother type of landslide.