Landslide Hazard Predictive GIS Visualization System Research Based On Statistics And Displacement Vector Angle Models

China is one of the most serious countries suffering geologic hazard in the world,more than half of them are landslide hazard. It caused serious casualties and hugefinancial loss frequently in recent five-years. One of the press for solve the technologyproblem is the study on the integrate time and spatial predictive analysis for landslide.The integrate time and spatial predictive analysis is becoming the important scientificbasis for predict the landslide accurately and optimize the solution of the disasterprevention and reduction. Along with the developing of the3S technology, the study ofusing GIS in the landslide predictive analysis is more mature. This paper uses thecomponents GIS develop method to design and develop a landslide hazard predictiveGIS visualization system based on statistics and displacement vector angle models,researches on the time and spatial two-indexes prediction of landslide hazard.(1) Among the most time and spatial prediction of landslide analysis models, thispaper choose four models as the landslide predict calculate models, for instants:optimum weight combined model, Verhulst gray model, exponential smoothing modeland gray GM (1,1) modified residual error model. Slope displacement vector anglemodel is the spatial analysis prediction model for landslide.(2) Based on the component GIS development mode: ESRI Company ArcGIScomponent developer’s kit ArcGIS Engine, object-oriented programming language C#and.NET development platform, combine Geodatabase and SQL Server personaldatabase, make use of the chosen time and spatial prediction models for landslide,design and develop the landslide hazard predictive GIS visualization system based onstatistics and displacement vector angle models. This system is specializing in thepredictive compute of landslide time and the spatial prediction analysis.(3) Landslide hazard predictive GIS visualization system based on statistics anddisplacement vector angle models consists of five main modules: add and savemultiple data sources, edit and compute map spatial data, GIS spatial analysis,landslide predictive analysis compute and monitoring data management. Through theindependent software interface, the function modules realize the visualization systemof the landslide time predictive compute and spatial predictive analysis. (4) Create the landslide monitoring data management control, it could real-timeupdate the landslide monitoring data. Through the monitoring data curve we canvisualization analysis landslide damage effects and early warning the landslide hazard.(5) This paper takes the Lianziya hazardous rock of ChangJiang Xiling Gorge asthe experiment research area. Predict analysis the time and spatial of the landslide fromthe Lianziya hazardous rock monitoring displacement data. This system predictcompute the time and the spatial analysis of Lianziya hazardous rock, compare withthe real monitoring data the prediction result is accurate and provide the referencebasis of the practical engineering application.(6) The monitoring data management main data source is the high slope thedisplacement and stress monitoring data of Jingdong coar mine industrial square.Realize the real-time high slope stability monitoring management through the twodimensional visualization curve analysis, it provides a convinient visualization dataplatform for slope early-warning.This paper researches on the several compute analysis methods of landslide timeand spatial based on GIS re-development and develop a landslide hazard predictiveGIS visualization system based on statistics and displacement vector angle models.The system realizes the time and spatial two-index prediction of landslide hazard andthe visualization management of the slope displacement and stress monitoring data.The visualization analysis of prediction and management can improve the efficiency ofthe landslide early-warning and monitor management. It could provide a effectivetechnical support and scientific reference to the landslide hazard early-warning, thestrategies of diseaster prevention and mitigation and the decisions of the urbanplanning.