The Risk Assessment Of Typhoon Disaster And Meteorological Index Insurance In Fujian Province

The Northwestern Pacific is the source and origin of more tropical cyclones (typhoons) than anywhere in the world. Fujian province, located on the east coast of mainland China and the Northwestern Pacific, is one of the regions which suffer from the most serious typhoon disaster. In average, typhoons cause hundreds of fatalities and direct economic losses of over2billion Yuan every year.Based on typhoon track data, meteorological data, and disaster data, the characteristics of typhoons in Fujian province from1949to2010are analyzed. The spatial and temporal changes in the characteristics of typhoon-related precipitation and wind pattern, as well as the disaster indices are investigated. In this paper a risk assessment is conducted and the design of a meteorological index-based insurance is described.According to the analysis, the total number of landfall-making typhoons in Fujian province from1949to2010is103; which is an average of1.72landfall-making typhoons each year. Most of the typhoons land from July to September, with the highest rate in August, which is about44.7percent of typhoon landfalls in Fujian province. From1960to2010, significant increasing trends are observed in total typhoon precipitation, maximum daily precipitation, and in the frequency of heavy rainfall events. As for the spatial distribution, a general decrease from east to west is apparent.With dimensional information diffusion, calculate transcendental probability of maximum daily precipitation and maximum wind speed. In the thresholds of maximum daily precipitation50mm and100mm, the transcendental probabilities in the eastern counties of Fujian are higher than western counties. In the thresholds of maximum wind speed18m/s and25m/s, the transcendental probabilities in the Middle East department of Fujian are higher than western counties. And typhoon risk analysis through the two-dimensional information diffusion and Poisson. While maximum daily precipitation is during50mm to100mm and maximum wind speed is from18m/s to25m/s, the character of risk is the risk of the eastern counties of Fujian are higher than western counties.Direct economic losses of the eastern counties of Fujian are higher than that of the central and southwestern. Combining these results with the typhoon disaster material of1984to2007, i.e. affected crop-harvest area, number of fatalities, number of collapsed houses, and direct economic losses, several comprehensive disaster indexes are calculated. The risks of typhoon disasters in Fuding County are greater than in Lianjiang County, Xiamen, and Zhaoan County.By using the information diffusion model for each county (here taking Fuding County as an example), the probability distribution of the typhoon impacts are calculated and combined with the economic losses, to estimate the threshold values of a typhoon disaster under ideal conditions. Hence, this model allows us to generate certain thresholds, which can be used in the design and implementation of a meteorological index-based insurance.