Studies On Evaluating Method Of Meteorological Service And Tropical Cyclone Disaster

The meteorological service is becoming more and more important for public people in our society. Therefore, it is necessary to know service users’needs, opinion of weather forecast and evaluate meteorogical service. By getting rid of the invalid data of175958questionnaires which came from China Meteorological Administration, the public opinion of weather forecast’s accuracy and people’s satisfaction about meteorological service are analyzed. The results indicated that about74.3%of surveyed people are satisfied with the public meteorological service in China. What’s more, public people pay more attention to the warning forecast of meteorological disaster and the6-72hours (3days) forecast. However, as weather forecast’s accuracy goes down rapidly after72hours (3days). public people lose their interest in paying attention to weather forecast correspondingly. The vast majority of public people (about85.5%) get meteorological information by TV at night. The average number of willingness to pay is increased as the rate of weather forecast accuracy improved and people’s satisfaction about meteorological service goes up. Rural people’s payment is higher than payment of people who live in town when the satisfaction degree is in low level. On the opposite, the situation in high level is quite different. Rural people’s payment is lower than payment of people who live in town. The explanation for this situation occurrence is they have different standards and values. After analyzing the average payment of willingness to pay in16groups in which public people hold the same view of weather forecast’s accuracy and satisfaction about meteorological service, a method of pricing meteorological service is obtained.By analyzing the middle area of China, it is indicated that the benefit of public meteorological service in middle area of China are RMB7.7219billion, RMB9.1264billion and RMB2.4798billion with3methods. The different results come from difference of assessment thought. In order to find out influence factors of willingness to pay in east, middle and west part of China, ordinary least square method is used in analyzing data from Shanghai, Hubei and Tibet. Results show that frequency of receiving weather information has the most significant effect on public people’s payment in Shanghai.What’s more, the living place has the most significant effect on public people’s payment in Hubei.Finally, the age has the most significant effect on public people’s payment in Tibet. Career has not shown any effect on public people’s payment in Shanghai, Hubei or Tibet. The average payment of willingness to pay in east, middle and west part of China is related to the per capita gross domestic product.Disasters data of tropical cyclone become comparable by using U(x) function in this paper. Evaluating model of tropical cyclone disaster is built up by using partial least-squares regression method and the meteorological service value of typhoon Saomai in Zhejiang provice in2006is RMB3.843billion.