A Study On Tsunami Numerical Forecasting Technique Based On The Tsunami Buoy

Tsunami is one of the most serious natural calamities which maritime countriesneed to be facing with. China has a long coastline, which is adjacent to the Pacificseismic belt, so it exit tsunami risk to China coasline. In China, the secondgeneration of tsunami-early-warning-system will soon be established. In this paper,based on the tsunami buoy, tsunami numerical forecasting technique is introduced.We will find out the sensitivity of forecasting outcomes to some factors such as thesize of a unit source, the selection of buoy data, the position of tsunami buoy,topography of the seafloor and so on through sensitivity tests on the factors listedabove, with the hope to help us select the appropriate combination of parameters infuture tsunami forecasting.The sensitivity test of unit source indicate that weighting factors of unit sourcesmay be stable if we choose appropriate unit sources in inversion calculation. Withregard to tsunami source database, a large area of unit source is not in favor of therepresentation of the behavior of the tsunami initial field, and a too small area of uintsource is not beneficial for inversion calculation.The sensitivity test on the quantity of buoy data in inversion reveals that it willbe desirable using the first wave data in inversion for forcasting while a large amoutof data would not bring much of a difference.The sensitivity test on the position of the buoy indicates that the position willaffect forcasting. Using two buoy’s data may make forcasting outcome more accurate.The sensitivity test on sea floor topography shows that forcasting result is betterin deep water than in regions of shallow water or complex topography.