The Trend Characteristics Of Clmatic Change In Tai’an City And Its Influence For Food Production And Regulatory Measure

Agriculture is not only most directly affected by meteorological factors, but it is alsomost vulnerable to these factors. In the present study, under the background of globalwarming, we investigated three major meteorological factors in Taian City, ShangdongProvince, China, including the natural temperature, precipitation and daylight hours. By thismeans, we analyzed the trends and characteristics of meteorological changes in the past fiftyyears, especially the value and temporal/spatial distribution of the three meteorological factorsin the last ten years, and their changes in different growth stages of wheat and corn.Previously, researchers have demonstrated the changes in the growth and development ofwheat and corn in response to alteration in the three meteorological factors. Combining theresults of the past and present studies, as well as the actual farming and cultivationmanagement model, we developed regulatory strategies and technical measures that areconsistent with the characteristics of the current climate. Our study provides scientificevidence for the development of rapidly-responsive high-yielding cultivation strategies whichcan improve the capabilities of Taian City to resist natural disasters and adapt to climatechanges.1. Trends and characteristics of temperature changes in Taian City during the past sixtyyearsFrom1951to2010, the annual average temperature increased1.18℃at a rate of0.20℃per ten years. The rate of the temperature increase differed in different time periods, and wasthe greatest in the1990s and early2000s. The rate of the temperature increase also differed indifferent seasons. The winter season showed the greatest temperature increase, with anincrease rate of0.49℃per ten years, followed by spring, with a rate of0.36℃per ten years,fall, with a rate of0.11℃per ten years, and summer, with a rate of-0.0036℃per ten years.The number of low temperature days decreased at a rate of3.56days per ten years.2. Trends and characteristics of precipitation changes in Taian City during the past sixtyyearsFrom1951to2010, the annual average temperature decreased35.98mm, at a rate of6 mm per ten years. The average annual precipitation increased from the1950s to the1960s,then decreased till the1980s, and then started to increase again. Overall, the precipitation didnot show significant changes among different time periods. The analysis of seasonalprecipitation changes between1961and2009indicated that the precipitation increased at arate of3.52mm per ten years in the spring, and decreased at a rate of2.93mm per ten yearsin the summer,7.62mm in the fall, and0.17mm in the winter. The number of rainy daysdecreased at a rate of2.11days per ten years, and the number of heavy rainy days increased ata rate of0.08days per ten years.3. Trends and characteristics of daylight hour changes in Taian City during the past fiftyyearsThe analysis of changes in annual daylight hours between1961and2010indicated thatthe number of daylight hours decreased367.75hours, at a rate of76.70hours per ten years.The number of daylight hours continuously decreased in the2000s, and showed the greatestdecreasing rate.4. Temporal and spatial distribution of major meteorological factors in Taian Cityduring the past ten yearsWe analyzed the average ten-day temperature, precipitation, and daylight hours of TaianCity in the past ten years. We further analyzed the effective accumulated biologicaltemperature (>0℃) of wheat and corn. Our results provide reliable scientific data for thedevelopment of technical measures.5. Positive effect of climatic changes on the food production of Taian CityWe analyzed the values of the three meteorological factors and their distribution, andfound that in the winter, the temperature increase had a positive impact on the growth ofwheat and the development of the vegetable industry. However, the large yearly variation ofthe temperature made it difficult for technical regulation. The decreased daylight hoursshowed a negative impact on corn production.6. Development of regulatory strategies and technical measures.Our results indicated that food production not only can passively adapt to climate changes, but can also show active response with artificial technical interference. Based on coordinatedeconomic and ecological development, we developed ten systematic measures to adapt to thenatural changes:1) improve the construction of water conservancy facilities to enhance theability to resist drought adversity;2) improve soil fertility and productivity;3) adjust thecropping systems and explore new intercropping approaches to promote the multiple croppingindex;4) apply the two-night technology to adapt to the climatic changes;5) strengthen thestudy and introduce application of the materialized form of agriculture new results;6) plantprotection new technology research and application, reduce the harm of disease pest and weed;7) strengthen the technical training of farmers to improve farmland management;8) improvemid-and long-term weather forecasting to provide scientific data for the two-night technology;9) utilize air water resources.