Interpreting Probability

Twentieth century, especially in the early twentieth century, is the glorious era in the history of mathematical statistics. A series of achievements, from the establishment of the framework of modern mathematical statistics to developing into a mature discipline, were completed during this period. In statistics, the single term "probability" can be used in several distinct senses. These fall into two main groups:frequency interpretation and Bayesian interpretation. R.A. Fisher and H. Jeffreys, are representative figures respectively. In the early1930s, they had. in form of writing papers, a debate for a long time. After introducing their academic background and main work, the content of this article is mainly about the analysis of their main content of this debate, and to research differences and relations between them in-depth. Fisher is committed to genetics research and Jeffreys is a geophysicist. so this debate reflects two different attitudes towards scientific research process. Some scholars believe that a trend of statistics in21st century is "a combination of frequency and objective Bayesian". Therefore, knowing the differences and relations of them has an important significance for the study of modern statistical theory and to grasp the direction of the future development of statistics.Firstly, the study starts with an account of the history of probability from the mid-seventeenth to the end of nineteenth centuries. Although the theory of inverse probability had no significant progress in this period, many scientists continued to regard inverse probability as the model for practical uncertain inference. Then, it introduces both Fisher and Jeffreys"s academic background and research work, particularly in terms of probability. Their research and research methods have an impact on their interpretation of probability respectively. And then there’s the main content of this article:debate on distinct interpretation of probability. The dispute was partly a result of misunderstanding. However, it makes the point that the difference between the approaches of Fisher and Jeffreys stemmed from distinct views of the character and purpose of scientific inquiry. Finally, it’s a simple summary our full-text content.