CO₂Emission Reduction Policies For "BRIC" Based On RICE Model

Developed countries appeal to "BRIC" to participate in CO2emission reduction because the CO2emissions of "BRIC" rank among the world’s most advanced countries under global warming condition. On the basis of population,economy and climate data, Imported RICE-2007model has been revised into RICE model which includs the "BRIC" region/member countries of "BRIC". The optimization research of IPCC program,OECD program and Copenhagen program has been carried out. Then, emission reduction policy for Brazil, Russia, India and China has been proposed and evaluated so as to provide suggestion and decision making for Participating in international climate negotiations and generating CO2emission reduction strategies. Specific results are as follows:(1) Atmospheric CO2concentration will be less than450ppm by2050under all scenarios set from IPCC program,OECD program and Copenhagen program, except for Ⅱ scenario in which "BRIC’ and the rest of the world won’t cut CO2emission in2005-2050;16scenario, in which25%emissions will be cut by2050compared with the level of2005, is the most suitable for "BRIC" in7scenarios set from IPCC program;03scenario, in which13%emissions will be increased by2030compared with the level of2005and34%emissions will be reduced by2050compared with the level of2000, is the most suitable for "BRIC" in6scenarios set from OECD program; C1scenario, in which35%carbon intensity(GDP unit carbon) will be cut on2005levels by2020and then the annual decline of carbon intensity in2020-2050is5%, is the most suitable for "BRIC" in5scenarios set from Copenhagen program. The result shows that there is no need for "BRIC’ to select emission reduction scenarios which benefit Japan, European Union and the United States at the expense of its economic growth and people’s living standard under safey climate condition.(2) C1scenario will have minimal impact on economic growth and people’s living standard in16,03and C1scenarios. As far as per capita emissions is concerned, the preliminary design of emission reduction scheme for member countries of "BRIC" based on C1scenario is equitable, but in which economic growth and people’s living standard of Brazil will be badly affected. The result shows that C1scenario is the most suitable scheme for "BRIC" in IPCC program,OECD program and Copenhagen program, and the preliminary design based on it is equitable but needs adjusting. (3) With the same CO2emissions, control rate of CO2emissions in Brazil will be much higher than the rate in other countries, and polarization of abatement cost/GDP will take place in the four countries whose emission reducing space will be in the order of China>India>Russia> Brazil. According to CO2emissions of the same abatement cost(Brazil:Russia:India:China=0.0023:0.1428:0.158:1.8083), part CO2emissions can be transmitted from Brazil to other countries, which will relieve stress of Brazil and prevent Polarity. The result shows that redesign of emission reduction scheme for member countries of "BRIC" based on C1scenario is possible through the transfer of part CO2emissions.(4) BC3scenario in which Brazil will transfer50%emission reductions to Russia, India and China in proportion is most beneficial for "BRIC" to develop the economy in five emission reduction scenarios.Compared to the preliminary design, Brazil’s accumulative GDP will raise＄285.93billion under BC3scenario in2005-2050,which is achieved at the expense of other countries’ economic growth and people’s living standard,so Brazil should give a certain economic compensation to other countries. Brazil, Russia, India and China will gain＄120,645,＄8,446,＄10,458and＄146,381billion respectively after the distribution of＄285.93billion.The result shows that BC3scenario is the most suitable scheme for Brazil, Russia, India and China in five redistribution scenarios.