Quantitative Research On The Sustainable Development Of County Region

Based on the ecological footprint theory and ecological service value theory, taking Ningxiang County, Hunan Province as a example, the sustainable development of county region was studied quantitatively using the single evaluation and comprehensive evaluation method according to the reacher ideal of "the current development of quantitative evaluation-the development potential of systems dynamics simulation-expected results of qualitative evaluation".The conclusions are as follows:1. Based on the analysis of single evaluation index and development trend,the sustainable development ability of Ningxiang County from2005to2009was evaluated using the comprehensive index evaluation, researched the sustainable development ability. The comprehensive indicator is0.165153,0.164800,0.100641,0.380665,0.532781in year2005-2009。0.532781in year2009which means that Ningxiang County was at the medium level of the sustainable development. Because many reasons had affected the sustainable development ability,only definitely development orientation,altering the development patten and adjusting the development step should be taken to achieve the purpose of the real sustainable development.2. The shape of the variation tendency of the ESV from2005to2009in the Ningxiang County is like inveted "V",which is opposite to the KEC shape. So the ecological service value should be concentrate on addition to traditional "EF-KEC-ER/ED" of the ecological footprint theory when studying the area sustainable development ability.3. The systems dynamics simulation model was built up using the Vensim PLE software for the sustainable development of Ningxiang County and involved indicators from2010to2020were predicated by the model based on the2009data. The annual value and trend of D, K, EE, EFI, EF, EGSV, ED, ESV, egsv as the main evaluation criterion, the operation results showed that the whole development tendency of2009-2020is superior to2005-2009, and better level of the sustainable development was achieved. 4. The EGSV,EGSVK and EGSV, were first proposed in this paper which should be the important indexes for regional sustainable evaluation.