Evaluation Research The Impact Of Climate Change To Red-crowned Crane Breeding Habitat In Northeast

In this paper, Phragmites australis which is the major vegetation type in northeasternbreeding habitat of Grus japonensis was chosen as the research object, mainly analyzes the driverfactors which influence breeding habitat of Grus japonensis and the impact of climate change.Because of the larger research area, Paper was divided into two aspects to discuss: Landscapescale (zhalong nature reserve) and Regional scale（northeast of China）. In landscape scale,adopted three periods of remote sensing image in1996,2004,2010, together with thecorresponding environmental data，and then do the driving factor analysis; in regional scale,used the simulated climate data in2005,2030,2050, built suitable probability of red-crownedcrane’s vegetation habitat through niche model.Then analyzed the impact of climate change tothe distribution change. Combining the research fruit, put forward the corresponding protectivemeasures.Research results show that:Based on six models (Respectively are Bioclim、Domain、LR、GARP、CART、Maxent)comparative analysis，results show that Maxent model had the highest diagnostic accuracy, andout performed in three aspects of recognition type of environment factors,selection the majorenvironmental factors, prediction the result. And in the case of species distribution data is notcomplete, it still can get satisfactory result, was proved to be the preferred model to establishpotential habitat of the species. Bioclim model rank only second to Maxent in predictionaccuracy, in the case of only considering climate variables, you can choose.During1996to2004, the suitable habitat in core region of Zhalong nature reserve area had adecreasing trend, the spatial distribution of high quality breeding habitat for the crane withsuitability above0.90were less aggregated and more fragmented, Breeding habitat of thered-crowned crane expanded from the core to the experimental area and the buffer. According tothe results of hot spot detection, the hot spots with significantly increased habitat suitability werelocated at places with improved hydrological and growing conditions of marsh plant，while thecold spots located at places with deteriorated environmental factors．During2005to2050, the breeding potential habitat area of the red-crowned crane innortheast was shrunken, the spatial distribution of high quality breeding habitat for the cranewere less aggregated, compared with in2005, the geographical distribution center of reed habitatmoved to the meliorative ecological environment area: under the situation of temperaturescontinue to rise, but precipitation net solar radiation remain unchanged, the geographicaldistribution cente moved to the southwest; under the situation of temperatures continue to rise,but precipitation rised, net solar radiation weaken, the geographical distribution cente moved tothe northwest.