Research On Storm Surge Forecast Model In China Sea And WebGIS Spatial Publishing

The storm surge is a catastrophic natural phenomena caused by abnormal movements due to severe atmospheric disturbances such as tropical cyclone. When the storm surge encounters astronomical tide, Often the water level of affected sea area will be raised suddenly and sharply. The disaster losses caused by storm surge are ranking first in marine disasters. Accurate, timely and effective numerical prediction is one of important non-engineering surge prevention and disaster reduction measures.In this paper, taking China Sea as the study area, according to the problems and shortage of current storm surge numerical model, in consideration of the practical application. The main work contents and research results are as follows:(1) The tropical cyclone is a highly complex weather phenomenon, current technique or method has not yet been able to fully and accurately predict its activity. Experience and knowledge of the forecasts still occupies an important position in the tropical cyclone forecasting. For the highly non-linear characteristics of tropical cyclone track forecasts, making use of CMA-STI tropical cyclone track dataset, considering the effect of Coriolis force on the tropical cyclone forecasting results, filter and optimize predictor and apply dimensionless process, to improve of the previous tropical cyclone forecasting methods based PSO-BP neural network.(2) The forecast results of tropical cyclone forecasting methods based PSO-BP neural network can provide input for the simulation of sea surface wind and pressure field in study area. According to the two-dimensional hydrodynamic equations, Couple astronomical tide and pure storm surge, so ultimately build the storm surge numerical model of China Sea under the action of tropical cyclone. The results of instance validation show that the model are basically consistent with measured data in amplitude and phase, while can reflect the effects of its surrounding waters caused by tropical cyclones.(3) Under the Web environment, combine the strong numerical calculation ability of FORTRAN with the advantage of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology in visual expression, package and integration related numerical models, integrate with GIS organically. Implement the storm surge forecasting system of China Sea which is set tropical cyclone track forecast and storm surge forecast in whole one. Provide intuitive spatial query and visual expression for the result of tropical cyclone track forecast and storm surge forecast. Ultimately aim at providing a basis and support for scientific decision-making, thereby mitigating loss on the coast of the social and economic due to storm surge which is caused by tropical cyclone.