The Reaserch Of Car Sales Forecast Models In China Based On Regression Analysis

Cars for the country’s industrial development, has a great role in promoting the development of the national economy.Car travel not only great convenience to people’s life and expanding the radius of the life of people, but to lead and promote the development of social productivity.China’s auto industry after more than50years of development, has become the pillar industry of our country.Especially the accession to the WTO since China’s automobile industry development has experienced a blowout, car production rose from2002in3million to2013in20million, on the global auto off sales champion.The rapid development of automobile industry makes the car company blindly expand capacity, poses a serious excess capacity.Once the car industry excess capacity to become a reality, not only cause huge waste of manpower and material resources, and even shake the foundation of the whole national economy.In order to balance the contradiction of excess production capacity and market demand, based on the analysis of the factors that influence the car sales, establish proper prediction model, car sales in the future for evaluation in advance, provide a basis for production plan evaluation in auto enterprise, make China’s auto industry health and sustainable development. This paper research content includes the following aspects:(1) with a review of the development history of the auto industry and the analysis of current situation of the development of China’s automobile industry, expounds the Chinese auto industry there are caused by blind expansion of the potential risks of excess capacity. As well as the significance and necessity of research presented in this paper.(2) the relevant theoretical basis of car sales forecast, again on the basis of this paper introduced some car sales forecast methods:gray prediction, regression, time series prediction and the BP neural network prediction.(3) discusses the main factors influencing the car sales in China, and analyzes these factors, it is concluded that China’s auto sales mainly affected by factors such a economy, price, environment. (4) car sales in China influence factors analysis, first of all, granger causality test, the factors which influence the using grey correlation analysis is calculated for each influence factors on the impact of China’s auto sales.(5) according to the analysis of the fourth part, the data processing, influence factors as explanatory variables, in car sales, for be explained variables, establish regression prediction model of car sales in China.(6) the full text summary...