Study On Corrosion Reliability Of Gas Pipeline Based On Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

With the growth of the pipeline serving time, due to corrosion caused by pipelinefailure accidents in the domestic and foreign natural gas pipeline failure the accidentproportion is much higher than the failure accidents caused by other factors. Thepipeline in the event of failure, it will cause a great impact on people’s lives andproperty safety, and ecological environment. In order to ensure the safe operation of thegas pipeline, study on corrosion reliability of gas pipeline is showing its importantpractical significance. In this paper, mainly based on deeply research on the relatedtheories, combined with gas pipeline corrosion reasons, corrosion mechanism, reliabilitymodel and so on has been system research. It provides the theory basis for the pipelineto formulate the corresponding control measures and maintenance plan. The mainresearch contents are as follows:(1) Analyze the corrosion reasons of gas pipeline. According the hoop stresschanges, combined with the geometry of pipeline, the corrosion rate of pipeline, thepipe yield strength parameters, established corrosion reliability model based on theMonte Carlo method to determine the failure distribution function, each parameters andfailure probability of corrosion pipeline analysis and calculation. With the help ofMATLAB tools to complete the simulation process. And corrosion pipeline parametersensitivity analysis to find out the key factors that affect pipeline failure.(2) The reliability model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. For theperformance of the gas pipeline corrosion reasons recession meet the general non-lineardegradation process, established the degenerate orbital model, based on the model forreliability evaluation of corroded pipelines. Using MATLAB tool simulation of reliability model, compare the effectiveness of Monte Carlo method reliability modeland Markov Chain Monte Carlo method reliability model.(3) The maintenance total cost model based on reliability. Starting from the actualsituation of pipeline maintenance, according to the reliability model simulation result,established a total cost of maintenance strategy model based on the maintenance ofeconomic rationalization, to determine the best maintenance of the pipeline moment,thereby reducing the total cost of the gas pipeline maintenance.