Research Of Water Environment Ecological Risk Based On Pollution Footprints Theory

The ecological system provides a wide variety of marketable goods. However,with the increase of the population and economic development, Ecological systemconfronts with more and more pressures, ecological risk has been come a focus inecology and mathematics. The pollution footprints based on ecosystem services hasbeen a new topic at home and abroad, what is the relationship between pollutionfootprints and ecological system risk? This thesis is aimed at the key to the questionspollution footprints，a new theoretical framework has been advanced, The frameworkis composed mainly of pollution footprints, discusses the calculation model ofpollution footprints The innovative study have made on ecological risk valuation withthe EVR model by referencing the VaR model which used in financial risks, and casestudy have made to evaluate the risk of Taihu lake basin ecological risks. Conclusionsare drawled as follows:(1) Discusses the theory and calculation method about pollution footprints. Thestudy of the ecological risk is based on the calculating of the pollution footprints. Thispaper has established the calculation model of pollution footprints.(2) Ecological risk analysis is anew marginal subject that studied sissies on risktheory, modern ecology and environmental science, etc. Currently, quantitativeassessing and integrative study of ecological risk is as significant issue in the world.Referring to the risk management framework which has formed in some developedcountry and combining with the content of the ecological risk analysis, a work flowand the indices assessing the risk of ecological risk analysis are generated.(3) As the human population has grown and the power of technology hasexpanded, the scope and nature of this modification has changed drastically. Manyecosystems are dominated directly by humanity. Under this background, this paperreviews the development of ecological risk analysis research and establishesecological system of fuzzy evaluation model, the risk of ecological system risk grayrelational model.(4) Ecological Value at Risk model is established to evaluate the risk of pollutionfootprints. EVR gives the largest loss the ecosystem might be suffered on a certainconfident level in the future. The tail loss which indicates the average loss when thedisaster happens is deducted. Use EVR model to forecast the risk of Taihu lake basinpollution footprints under the confident level such as95%. The results showed byEVR model is that Taihu lake basin footprints will suffer the largest loss of58975.02hm2.