Construction Of Evaluation Index System Of Birth Defects Intervention

Objective: Use of gray prediction methods quantitative research methods in healthservices management research methods without construct gray model of GM (1,1) usingthe actual rate of birth defects consider intervention in birth defects indicators obtainedgray model equations to predict the future trend of the rate of birth defects, tounderstand the rate of birth defects in China without considering intervention the futuretrend of development in the case of the measures, and then elaborate the problem of keyinterventions and reasonable proposal, to provide a theoretical basis for the health sectorto develop the corresponding countermeasures to improve the quality of China’spopulation; Use of qualitative research methods in health services management researchmethods Delphi method two advisory evaluation experts, comprehensive indexscreening intervention birth defects come to the contribution of specific evaluation ofintervention in birth defects, the size of the contribution pick of evaluation indicators,understanding of birth defects intervention work focuses on the understanding of thefuture trends of the rate of birth defects and Analysis of the evaluation of intervention.Methods: Add up birth defect rates between2002to2010actual birth defect ratesdo data once addition, construct GM (1,1) gray model derived model equations, andthen get the accurate prediction of the2011－2015rate of birth defects; Delphi expertconsultation method two consultation questionnaire of10experts,25secondaryindicators after expert consultation questionnaire screening last two-level indicators and15secondary indicators from the initial design of the three-level indicators.Results: The contribution to derive indicators, gray model average error rate2.3%,the model accuracy was excellent, posterior margin ratio C=0.3177, predicted goodresults can be extrapolated to predict for the birth defect rate in2011－2015; Carry outexpert consultation questionnaire,100%recovery, experts actively drawn through the analysis of two-level indicators and15secondary indicators, the views of the expertevaluation index higher overall coordination, W=0.67, test after a significant levelexpert evaluation advice with remarkable consistency, the evaluation system can beused for intervention in birth defects comprehensive evaluation of the project.Conclusion: Nearly9years, the rate of birth defects in China is an upward trend inthe health sector should recognize that the future trends of the rate of birth defects, andto take more effective measures to prevent the occurrence of birth defects. PremaritalCheck-up measures with the incidence of birth defects with correlation, negativecorrelation; Eventually come to birth defects intervention evaluation overall evaluationof the top three for the addition of folic acid/composite nutrients, genetic counseling,mandatory premarital measures impact assessment indicators, as a single rate of birthdefects is not enough scientific.