Research On Evolutionary Mechanism Of Unconventional Emergency Based On Catastrophe Theory

Process of human development is always accompanied by many risks, all kinds ofemergencies also occur constantly, and the scale is becoming more and more big. Thecoupling, correlation and dependence between different social factors are growing, whichleads partial or routine incidents can easily be turned into wide range and destructiveunconventional events. The number of unconventional emergency is on a growth trend, andthe cost of keeping stability is high and on the rise, which influence the social stability.Therefore, improving the abilities of prevention and operation on unconventional emergenciesis the essential factors to improve the abilities of government administration, socialmanagement and serving the people effectively. It is also the important condition to ensurethe peace of social development. Unconventional emergency research not only relationshipwith the whole China’s social development, but also a worldwide subject. Because of theunconventional emergencies evolution research is less, In order to further improve theunconventional emergencies evolution mechanism, and improve the abilities of precaution,control and rescue to unconventional emergencies. This paper makes the further research onevolution mechanism of unconventional emergencies. The main works are as following:Firstly, describes the four patterns of the existed mechanism of evolution: transform,spreading, derivative and coupling with case study respectively. For the transformationmechanism,, obtained that the key point is to control external factors and the breakthrough isto placate the mood of participants through "Wengan event"; For spreading mechanism,making the judgment of the possibility of spreading after the event can reduce losses tominimum due to the irreversibility of events from "Japan tsunami event"; For derivative, thekey to reduce the accident is to improve the ability of training of operating staff by "Wenzhou train crash "; For the coupling mechanism, the occurrence of the event lies in thedestruction of the ecological nature, and protecting the ecological environment is the key tosolve the problem from "Zhouqu debris flow events".Secondly, selects the "Xiamen PX event" as example, from the cusp mutation model ofcatastrophe theory, based on the existed four types of unconventional emergencies evolutionmodel, deduced another new model of unconventional emergencies evolution that is mutation.And apply it to large-scale mass incidents evolved by dangerous chemical accident,expanding the unconventional emergencies evolution patterns, perfecting the unconventional emergencies evolution mechanism, providing technical support for emergency warningsystems.Finally, analyzes the "Dalian PX event" using mutation. Before “PX event”, Dalian hasbeen happened three oil pipeline explosion accidents consecutively. The disturbing factors ofhuman have been accumulated to a critical point, and the system has been on the brink ofcollapse. The raid of typhoon "plum" was the prelude to system crash, eventually led the"Dalian PX" into mass incidents. The character of this event is chemical accident into a massincident. It is a kind of mutation, and the destructive is more serious.This paper develops the study of emergency evolution mechanism, and provides a newidea for the research of emergency mutation analysis. When similar incidents happenfrequently and such incidents accumulated to a certain extent, reaching the tipping point offrom quantitative change to qualitative change, accidents may lead to mutation, forming anew kind of destructive accidents. In order to prevent incidents from Mutation, we shouldfrom both the number and size find the emergency threshold of quantitative change toqualitative change, to establish and perfect the emergency warning system of mutation.