Multi - Index Uncertainty Comprehensive Judgment Method And Its Application

Assessment is an important activity in production and living，which can help decision makersto make the right decisions. The multi-index comprehensive evaluation is an objective and rea?sonable overall assessment of the evaluation. So the study of comprehensive evaluation methodis of great value. Its basic idea is to translate the multi-index into an index which can relfec-t comprehensive situation. But when we conduct a quantitative evaluation, there always existsindeterminacy for some reasons，such as the lack of historical data or information. In this casethe uncertain vairables will be used to deal with the uncetrain factors. So the research on themulli-variable uncertain comprehensive evaluation method has more practical signiifcance.Firstly, this paper describes the indeterminacy of the evaluation index with uncetrain vair?ables, and transforms the multi-index into an aggregative indicator. Then a new comprehensiveevaluation method based on uncetrainty theory is presented. According to this kind of method, thescore of each evaluated index given by every expert is regarded as an uncertain variable. After that,four comparison rules of uncertain comprehensive judgement are proposed. At last, examples aregiven to illustrate the uncertain comprehensive evaluation methods?The innovation points in this paper are as follows:(l)The uncertain information are describedwith uncertain vairables, so as to quantify the uncetrain information reasonably.(2)Four com?pairson rules of uncertain comprehensive evaluation are proposed by means of expected value、optimistic value、pessimistic value、uncertainty measure of uncertain variable, respectively. De?cision makers can choose different rules to evaluate according to the needs of the actual evaluationcriteria.