Simulation Of County Land Use Change Based On CLUE - S Model

Land use reflects the most direct and the closest relations between human and nature when they have mutual influence and interaction. While human is in the use of land to promote the development of social economy, they have caused the change of land cover, and caused a huge impact on the ecological environment. Land Use and Land Cover change, Land Use and Land Cover Changes, LUCC) is an important aspect of the current global change research. The model is an important tool and means to explain and understand the change of land use. Land Use change and its spatial effect model is built on the basis of deeply understanding of Land Use changes characteristics (such as competitive, stability, etc.) which are within the land use system. It analyzed comprehensively driving action of the natural environment and social economic factors, simulated simultaneously the change of different land use types.In the background of urbanization, the characteristics of the construction land expansion in small towns are obvious. County land use changes drastically especially in cities, which is the main areas of the research of LUCC. This study put the fast urbanization of county area as an example, and select more suitable for small area land use change CLUE-S simulation model, to simulate of the regional land use dynamic change process. On the basis of GIS analysis and SPSS statistical analysis, the paper select driving factors which are related to regional land use change to a large degree through the study of regional historical data and statistical analysis of the driving factors of land use change. Using the land use data of the fu yuan county in2009and2011builds the CLUE-S model, for simulating land use change in2010-2015. We can get the2015year’s land use simulation diagram. The simulation results show that the CLUE-S model can explain the study area land use dynamic change process well. The paper carried out the research work and conclusion which are as follows:(1)Firstly the paper expounded the land use simulation model (CLUE-S) structure, and emphasizing expounded the principle and method of how the model runs. The model determined and expresses the land use types by calculating the relative coverage of each land use type within a particular pixel.(2) The economy of county area closer to the city develops fast. Within the time scale of this study, urban land, land for traffic and water conservancy significantly increased, and occupyed the nature reserve, forest land, dry land, etc. Under the background of urbanization to choose diversification closely related to the different land types driving factors (including natural factors and social economic factors), and using the method of logistic regression models and ROC curve to repeatedly to drive factor screening, finally choose the suitable for driving factors in research area.(3)Putting fu yuan county land use pattern as the research object, we shift the study area map of present land use situation in2009into250x250m raster data, to simulate of land use pattern in2011, and compare with the actual land use situation in2011.2011years simulation results verified the Kappa coefficient is0.808, and simulation is successful.The innovation of the paper is that:(1) In the process of simulation of using the CLUE-S model, the policy used as regional limit file which had an impact to land use change were input into the model. It can more intuitively see the effect that regional land use policy are associated with land use change of the study area on the space.(2) In the direction of the land use change simulation and in the driving factors choice of scheme experimental process the paper selected the social economic driving factors which are harder to express on the space. According to the results, we select the parameter and power factor which are according with the characteristics of the study area, and we can make the experiment more smoothly and the simulation precision is higher. The results of the study has a certain reference value to county land use planning, rational development and utilization of land resources and the implementation of the strategy of sustainable development.