Hazard Vidualization Research Hongling Mine Coal And Gas Outburst

As we all know, safety production is the eternal theme of the coal mining enterprises. Currently coal and gas outburst disaster is still the "number one killer" in coal industry production safety accidents, although in terms of detection forecast outburst prevention management which has made some achievements in domestic and foreign, but because of the forming factors of coal mining are very complex, these methods are difficult to forecast the practical application, which result the outburst disasters in a passive of low-level state regulation. In the research results of coal and gas outburst, because of different research environment,therefore states scholars select different research line, research methods and core technologies from different research perspective, which their applicability, practicality, rationality have their own advantages.Considering the practical exploitation of outburst coal, coal and gas outburst has the characteristics of disequilibrium distribution and zoning. Which are more likely qualitative description of the reason of the coal and gas outburst, and difficult to quantitative and application practicality, therefore we would like to find a comprehensive analysis method balance both qualitative and quantitative to predict and evaluate the coal and gas outburst area. Taking the study of Shenyang Hongling Coal Mine outburst hazard, counting and researching by Hongling mine coal and gas outburst data over the years, analysing the internal relations which lead to the coal and gas outburst, establishing prediction model which integrate coal and gas outburst forming factors, thus achieving the coal and gas outburst hazardous area regionalization and prediction. The article carried out the specific studies from the following aspects:(1)According to the actual situation of Shenyang Hongling Coal Mine, we collected 12 years outstanding data of Hongling Coal Mine, as well as relevant influencing factors, analyze the individual indicators, draw the correlation analysis chart to explore the relationship between the individual indicators and the outburst hazard, and determined the prominent important factor.(2)By comparing the screening, we use Fisher discrimination method to establish the prediction model of coal and gas outburst danger zone. By selecting out of the by the linear combination of the individual indicators, established the outburst prediction model and got a comprehensive judgment number, which divided the danger zone and the non-protruding hazardous area zoning of the mine, and used this comprehensive model to predict the West End outburst danger.(3)Applied with Surpac to establish "old Hongling Coal Mine" and "West Hongling Coal Mine" geological database, generated old Hongling Coal Seam and the Western solid model, and according to the threshold to differ the danger zone and non-hazardous area with different colors, red represent the danger zone, and green represent non-hazardous areas, which highlight the hazardous areas and provided intuitive results.(4) Empirical Study. Combined the actual situation of Shenyang Hongling Coal Mining Western, verified the accuracy of the prediction model, proved the forecast result consistent with the actual situation.