Influences Of Climate Change On The Ecosystem Services Value Of Dalinor Natural Reserve And Risk Addressing

Selecting the Dalinor Nature Reserve in inner Mongolia as an object of study, and research data is daily observation data from 1957 to 2013 of three meteorological stations around Dalinor Nature Reserve in Chinese terrestrial climate data Month Day dataset released by China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn). This paper selected temperature and precipitation meteorological factors calculated by SPSS Statistics19.0 as climate change indicatorofDalinor nature reserve and used linear regression model and Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical testing to analyze average annual temperature, annual precipitation, the change is greater than equal to 10℃ accumulated temperature and aridity from 1957 to 2013 in nature reverse. Land use change data of Nature Reserve from 1985 to 2013 was achieved through 1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,2010 six Landsat TM remote sensing images. These images are preprocessed and human-computer interaction visual interpreted using ArcGIS9.3 software, and interpretation signs are established as 1:50 000 topographic map registration resume. NDVI of Nature Reverse from 1985 to 2013 is calculated by ENVI4.8, so as toanalyze dynamic characteristics of its ecological environment in recent decades.Changes on the value of protected area services ecosystem are analyzed by ecosystem services value model with Ecological land change data.Change of situation ecological pattern’s response to changes in the climate in Dalinor Nature Reserve for decades are analyzed through changes in ecosystem service value. The main conclusions are:Temperature increased and precipitation decreased significantly in Dalinor Nature Reserve from 1957 to 2013, and temperature are on the rise with an average increase rate of 0.34 ℃ in the 10 years. Theprecipitation decline 7.15mmon average every 10 years.The variation of temperature, precipitation and aridity is basically same with climate change in Natural Reverse.Each Ecological land type changed significantlyin Dalinor Nature Reserve.Among them, water, woodland, marshes, saline land area decreased;grass, sand, inland beach area increased.water area reduced by 9.0 per cent, grassland area increased by 8.07 per cent, forest area reduced by 6.17 per cent, marsh area reducedby 24.40 per cent, area of sandy land increased by 17.50 per cent, inland beach area increased more than 2 times for the original, saline alkali land area reduced by 54.73 per cent.Vegetation coverage of Natural Reserve changed significantly. NDVI around water increased significantly and vegetation coverage of Natural Reserve in eastern has been reduced significantly higher than the west. The total value of ecosystem services of Natural Reserve is generally increasing.Effect factors of various Ecological land types of Dalinor Nature Reserve by climate change are larger, and degree of influence of temperature is slightly larger than the precipitation.The main source of climate change risk is increased temperature and reduced the average annual precipitation in Dalinor Nature Reserve. The impact of climate change on Natural Reverse showed severe atrophy of the lake area, serious desertification, destructionofprotectedbirds habitat. Accordingly, this paper suggests DalinorNature Reserve to establish management addressing climate change risk, build management systems of protected areas to deal with the risks of climate change and strengthen scientific research on climate change risks.