Air Quality Influence Factors And Trend Forecasting In The Wujiaqu

Throughout 2015, the haze swept to potential aggression than half of China. Taking Beijing as an example, throughout 2015, Beijing had 179 days of pollution, and the final 46 days of the year, PM2.5 concentration of Beijing higher than the same period last year to more than 75.9%.And there was the "National Environmental Protection Model City," said Shenyang, in November2015 also suffered six serious haze pollution, the city’s average PM2.5 once reached 1155(μg/m3),more than twice the value of the burst table. Wujiaqu as a new city, there were 103 days of pollution in 2015, daily air quality pollution was ranked first in the country rankings. If the few cities in the North two years earlier as a feature is a sandstorm, now the majority of our city can not avoid the nightmare is to the haze as a symbol of air quality problems.In this paper, based the New Urban Corps-Wujiaqu 2010 to 2014 air quality monitoring data,combined with air quality satisfaction survey data and Wujiaqu Statistical Yearbook, the main contents of the study is to evaluate the air quality situation and influencing factors of an air quality and predicting an air quality trends. We can get the following main conclusions of the study:(1)Wujiaqu residents overall satisfaction on air quality score is 2.3823, which was in middle level, the current situation is not satisfied with the basic level of the residents; From 2010 to 2014,PM10 is the primary pollutant of Wujiaqu, during these five years, the best quality air in 2010, the worst air quality in 2013. In addition to 2010, the year of other air quality levels were mild pollution levels.(2)Based on the survey data, the establishment of an orderly Logistic regression model results:Variables " industrial soot mission control performance satisfaction(x1)", "traffic road dust control effect of satisfaction(x2)", " satisfaction industrial emission control performance satisfaction(x4)", " public places garbage control effect of satisfaction(x7) ", " extreme weather intervention prevention effect(x8) " significantly affect the residents satisfied with the air quality degree; the variable " automobile exhaust emission control performance satisfaction(x3)", "coal-fired emission control effect of satisfaction(x5)", "catering fume control effect of satisfaction(x6)" air to residents quality satisfaction effect is not significant. Thus, from the perspective of Wujiaqu we know that industrial smoke, exhaust, road dust and traffic incineration are the major sources of air quality.On the other hand, based on EPA monitoring data, a gray relational analysis model drawn:precipitation, sunshine, temperature and frost-free weather and Wujiaqu SO2, NO2 and PM10 concentrations showed a high correlation, From the meteorological conditions which affect the interaction of common Wujiaqu air quality; the main human factors Wujiaqu air quality include civilian car ownership, industrial added value proportion of GDP, secondary industry,environmental protection expenditure, energy consumption per unit of GDP and so on.(3)The use of gray GM(1,1) power model of Wujiaqu air quality trend forecast, results showed that: in next five years, Wujiaqu air quality will gradually deteriorate. Excellent rating results are based on the distribution of the number of days air quality monitoring in 2015 AQI values evidence that the air quality worsening trend.