Study On The Correlation Between Meteorology Factors And Ischemic Stroke Subtypes

Objective:To explore the relationship between the incidence of subtypes of ischemic stroke and meteorology factors, and the potential mechanism.In order to provide more reasonable evidence for the prevention and treatment of ischemic stroke.Methods:From November 1, 2011 to October 31, 2014, patients with acute stroke who lived in Taiyuan admitted to The First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University department of neurology were observed.The seasonal occurrence regularity is analyzed and the annual incidence peak was looking for. We performed TOAST criteria and OCSP classification on the peak incidence of medical records.,then analized the effects of five basic meteorological factors(Pa,Th,Ta,Tl,Ha) and Sixteen derived meteorological factors(Dr and The fluctuation value of basic meteorological index before the onset 1days, 3days, 7days)on subtypes of ischemic stroke with Pearson’s correlation. Finally,we build a predictive model that was tested latter with stepwise regression on the basis of the correlation analysis.Results:①There was seasonal variation in ischemic stroke incidence, which was the highest in spring. April and May was the peak months.② Pearson’s correlation analysis shows: in TOAST, Large artery atherosclerosis(ASS) was positively related with diurnal range,difference value of average air pressure between the onset day and the 1 day before,difference value of average relative humidity between the onset day and the 3 days before,difference value of minimum temperature between the onset day and the 7 days before(r=0.485,P<0.01;r=0.284,P<0.05;r=0.291,P<0.05;r=0.406,P<0.01); negatively related with difference value of maximum temperature between the onset day and the 1 day before, difference value of maximum temperature between the onset day and the 3 days before(r=-0.377,P<0.05;r=-0.323,P<0.05). Cardioembolism(CE) was negatively related with daily range of temperature, difference value of average relative humidity between the onset day and the 3 days before( r=-0.363,P<0.01; r=-0.259,P<0.05). Small artery occlusion(SAO) was positively related with difference value of maximum temperature between the onset day and the 1 day before(r=0.309,P<0.01), negatively related with daily average temperature,difference value of minimum temperature between the onset day and the 1 day before, difference value of minimum temperature between the onset day and the3 days before(r=-0.404,P<0.01;r=-0.334,P<0.05;r=-0.278,P<0.05). in OCSP, TACI was positively related with difference value of minimum temperature between the onset day and the 3 days before(r=0.320,P<0.05). PACI was positively related with difference value of minimum temperature between the onset day and the 1 day before(r=0.261,P<0.05).POCI and LACI was not related with any meteorology factors. ③ Multiple stepwise regression was used to build predictive model for TOAST subtype, the average error rate of the subtype of ischemic stroke model was more than 30%.Conclusions:① There was seasonal variation in ischemic stroke incidence, which was the highest in spring. April and May was the peak months.②The influence of meteorology factors on ischemic stroke onset varied with deferent stroke etiology subtype.③The influence of dynamic meteorology factors before stroke onset on stroke incidence was more significant.