Application Of Gail And Cuzick-Tyrer Model For Assessment On Breast Cancer Risk In Jilin Province

Objective:To assess the application value of Gail model and Cuzick-Tyrer model in the province of Jilin.Materials and Methods:Retrospective analysis the breast cancer risk assessment result of300 women who had invasive breast cancer and 267 healthy women with in 5-year fellow up in our hospital with the Gail model and Cuzick-Tyrer model,respectively.To analysis the diagnostic test result,Chi-square test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.And then compare the value at risk of Gail model and Cuzick-Tyrer model.Results:Among 300 cases and 267 controls,in the Gail model the result of diagnostic test was that the sensitivity was 68.97 percent and the specificity was 60.78 percent.the positive predictive value was 60 percent and negative predictive value was 69.99 percent.the Chi-square was16.679 and p<0.05. The Gail model achieved the AUC of 0.682(95%confidence interval,0.606-0.758). in the Cuzick-Tyrer model the result of diagnostic test was that the sensitivity was 80.72 percent and the specificity was 68.87 percent.the positive predictive value was 67 percent and negative predictive value was 82.02 percent.the Chi-square was45.947 and p<0.05. The Gail model achieved the AUC of 0.842(95%confidence interval,0.787-0.896).Conclusions:The Gail model and Cuzick-Tyrer model could assess the women who would have the invasive breast cancer in the province of Jilin.The accuracy of Cuzick-Tyrer model was better then The Gail model in the province of Jilin.