Endogenous Life Expectancy,Population Structure And Savings Rate

Now, the global savings rate is declining. What’s more, The savings rate will become lower and lower by the unprecedented aging population and the rising life expectancy, further more the economic will go down. For China, the country is facing demographic change. At the same time, The Lewis turning point is coming, China will lose the demographic dividend and high savings rate, economic will face a soft landing. So exploring life expectancy and the impact of population structure on the savings rate is imminent, exploring ways to enhance a country’s savings rate has become a key research questions.In the theoretical model level, for explaining the the impact of life expectancy, population structure on the savings rate, the paper established three iterative model to explore the life expectancy, the population structure for the savings rate.In the empirical level, the paper selected 1970-2013Transnational Panel Data among 246 countries, empirical analysis the impact of life expectancy growth and age structure changes on the savings rate. Due to the general lack of significant data model, this paper further establish life expectancy equation, incorporating the savings rate model. Ultimately concluded that:(1)Life expectancy rate for savings presented a positive role in promoting. (2) The child dependency ratio for the savings rate presented a negative role. Elderly dependency ratio for the savings rate can promote. (3) With the increase in life expectancy, child dependency ratio increased the inhibitory effect of savings rate, the elderly dependency ratio increased the promotion for savings rate. Life expectancy affect mainly by elderly dependency ratio on the savings rate. (4) Savings rates in developed countries are more sensitive to the elderly dependency ratio and life expectancy, savings rates in developing countries for child dependency ratio is more sensitive. Further studies showed that reduce children aged dependency ratio and dependency ratio in developing countries can further reduce the savings rate in developed countries. (5) For life expectancy, the level of technological development will result in significant role in promoting; the level of environmental degradation result in significant inhibition; infant mortality rate as a measure of a country’s level of medical proxy variables, it is expected to bring to inhibition; the per capita GDP will bring significant role in promoting; infant mortality is the most influential factor on life expectancy.Because our country is facing demographic changes, and will usher in the aging stage, we offer policy recommendations on how to continue to maintain our high savings:the first to seize the demographic dividend of the last complete industrial restructuring. Second, to carry out or encourage employees to delay retirement policy guidance. Third, improve the pension system as soon as possible rather than encourage fertility, improve the savings rate.