Prediction Of Mine Water Inflow In Hebi Zhongtai Coal Mine

There is always a variety of surface water and groundwater influx into the mine during mine construction and mining process. If the mine water inflow exceeds the design capacity of drainage, mine water disaster occurs, which could not only be detrimental to the safety of mine production, but also pose a serious threat to life safety of miners. Therefore, scientific prediction of mine water inflow is a key factor to make a plan of prevent and control mine water inflow and a significant guarantee to ensure safe mine production.In this paper, analogy method, analytical method, Logistic curve model, modified exponential model, Gompertz curve model, combined optimization model, and GM(1,1) gray theory model have been adopted to predict mine water inflow of Zhongtai coal mine. Prediction results of normal water inflow and maximum water inflow by the analogy method are 486.43m3/h, 982.85m3/h. Normal water inflow and maximum water inflow according to the analytical method are 523.6m3/h?1047.2m3/h. By application of the Logistic curve model, normal water inflow and maximum water inflow prediction of Zhongtai coal mine in the next three years are 380.4m3/h?383.0m3/h?385.3m3/h?760.8m3/h?766.0m3/h?770.6m3/h, the calculation accuracy of which can be 88.12%. By application of the modified exponential model, normal water inflow and maximum water inflow prediction of Zhongtai coal mine in the next three years are 391.9m3/h?395.8m3/h?399.5m3/h?783.8m3/h?791.6m3/h?799.0m3/h, the calculation accuracy of which can be 87.75%.By application of the Gompertz curve model, normal water inflow and maximum water inflow prediction of Zhongtai coal mine in the next three years are 386.5m3/h?389.7m3/h?392.7m3/h?773.0m3/h?779.4m3/h?785.4m3/h, the accuracy of which can be 88.03%.By application of the combined optimization model,normal water inflow and maximum water inflow prediction of Zhongtai coal mine in the next three years are 390.3m3/h?393.6m3/h?396.6m3/h?780.6m3/h?787.2m3/h?793.2m3/h, the accuracy of which can be 90.89%.By application of the GM(1,1) gray theory model, normal water inflow and maximum water inflow prediction of Zhongtai coal mine in the next three years are 476.27m3/h ? 505.72m3/h ?536.99m3/h?952.54m3/h?1011.44m3/h?1073.98m3/h, the calculation accuracy of which can be 94.71%.According to the comparison among calculation results based on different method, GM(1,1) gray theory model can be more accurate than combined optimization model, so in this paper the GM(1,1) gray theory model has been adopted in the prediction of normal water inflow and maximum water inflow of Zhongtai coal mine in the next three years. The prediction results can provide scientific reference in the selection of drainage facilities and the establishment of measures to prevent mine water inflow, which has a certain guiding significance.