Simulation Research On LUCC Based On GIS And CLUE-S Model

LUCC research is the core content of global change and its regional influence research field.In recent years,with the development of the global environmental change study,LUCC research received high attention from academia.In the field of LUCC research,Space simulation models,used to simulate LUCC,were important technical support for analyzing regional LUCC trend.Within the existing research on LUCC simulation,CLUE-S model can primely simulate regional LUCC in small scale.Taking Longquanyi District of Chengdu as the research object,this study collected the DEM data,two phases of the land use data in 2005 and 2014 as the basis data source,built up the CLUE-S model,carried out the spatial-temporal pattern simulation for LUCC pattern of Longquanyi District in different periods,to explored its suitability in Longquanyi District.The main results of this study were as follows:(1)This paper discussed the land use dynamic change characteristics and spatial evolution trend of Longquanyi District from 2005 to 2014.Analysis of land use dynamic change characteristics of Longquanyi District mainly choose the space dynamic,land use transfer matrix and other parameters,and applyed Markov model to calculated and predicted the demand for land use Longquanyi District in different time points,and the results showed that,in the process of LUCC,the change of the cultivated land,garden land and construction land was more obvious than other land use types of Longquanyi District.(2)Logistic regression model was employed to investigate the fit of the simulated test in different research scale,selected the most suitable simulation research scale,the result showed that60 m was the most suitable scale for this study.(3)The driving factors had different influence in different research period for the land change.Logistic regression analysis results showed that beta value of the driving factors and land types was different.Take cultivated land for an example,the main driving factors of cultivated land change in2005 were DEM,slope,the distance from the river,the distance from the rural residents,but in 2014,the influence of distance from the river to the change of cultivated land decreased obviously.(4)CLUE-S model had strong suitability for the land cover and land use change simulation in Longquanyi District.,the Kappa value of the simulation results was 84%,simulation precision wa high,which showed that the model was suitable for researching the LUCC in Longquanyi District.(5)In the future research of LUCC simulation,this study set up three different situations according to the actual situation in the study area,the simulation results could provide some decision-making guidelines for the land use planning revision and future urban planning layout of this area,and it also would provide reference for the similar type research in the future.