The Application Of Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model In Wuding River Basin

The ecological environment in northwest China is very fragile,and the climate and water resources seriously restrict the development of human society and economy.Especially in the environment of growing population,rapid economic development and global climate change,human labor?agriculture?forestry?animal husbandry and other activities will have a great impact on the environment.If ecological environment protection is ignored,ecological sensitive areas will face a series of serious environmental problems such as vegetation degradation,reduced coverage,increased desertification and water shortage.The study of qi lu interaction contributes to an understanding of the basin's water heat exchange process between the land surface and atmosphere,know the climate,vegetation,river basin evolving law of ecology and hydrology,eventually for reasonable planning of river basin ecological environment and water resources management to provide scientific theory basis.For the influence of climate change on the intervals of the Wuding River basin water resources,as well as the future climate scenarios mode of Hydrologic cycle response to climate change,this study applies the large scale Variable Infiltration Capacity of the land surface large-scale hydrological Model Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)Macroscale Hydrologic Model to study the wuding river basin,the established is suitable for the wuding river basin and its sub basin VIC Model,and combining the Dag Lohmann confluence Model to carry on the simulation analysis and sensitivity experiments,Combining the VIC model with the regional climate model,the influence of climate change on the water resources in the wuding river basin is predicted,and the interaction between the land and air is explored.The spatial and practical distribution of water resources in wuding river basin is analyzed qualitatively.The main research contents include the following aspects:(l):On the basis of VIC hydrological model,the use of the qinghai-tibet plateau of the Chinese academy of meteorological reanalysis data,through the inverse distance weighting-gradient method to meteorological data interpolation to the required resolution,the wuding river basin runoff process of 1979-2000 high resolution(0.083 ° x 0.083 °)simulation.(2)In this paper,seven soil parameters affecting the runoff process in Wuding River basin were calibrated and analyzed respectively.It is found that only the second soil and the variable infiltration capacity curve B are sensitive to the relative error of the multi-year runoff.(3)According to the five CMIP5 models,the response of the runoff changes in the wuding river basin to the climate change was analyzed under the climate scenario of RCP2.6.It is estimated that the runoff of wuding river basin will decrease in 2050 and the average annual temperature will rise.