The Analysis And Application Of A Kind Of HIV/AIDS Transmission Dynamics Model

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome?AIDS?is also known as Acquired Immune Syndrome.AIDS is a contagious disease caused by Human Immunodeficiency Virus?HIV?.HIV/AIDS is an infectious disease that severely affects human life and social development.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS.This paper builds a new type of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics model and applies the model to study the transmission trend of HIV/AIDS in China.Firstly,based on the mechanism of the compartment transmission of HIV/AIDS,a differential dynamic system model with the treatment process is build.The properties of equilibrium point and the stability conditions of disease-free equilibrium and endemic disease equilibrium are discussed.Then the basic reproduction number?R₀is calculated.When?R₀<1,the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotic stable;When?R₀>1,the endemic disease equilibrium is globally asymptotic stable.And the results of theoret-ical analysis are verified by numerical simulation.Secondly,according to the data reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention?January 2004 to December 2015?,the parameter values of the model were estimated and the basic reproduction number?R₀of HIV/AIDS in China was calculated.Then,using Latin Hypercube Sampling?LHS?technology and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient?PRCC?,the significant factors influencing the basic reproduction number?R₀,and the time-varying sensitivity of infection variables of HIV/AIDS with multiple param-eters are analyzed.Finally,the model established in this paper is used to simulate the trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic in China,and the reproduction number is calculated as?R₀=1.20727>1,which indicates that HIV/AIDS has gradually become an endemic in China.Simula-tion results also show that treatment is very important and meaningful in preventing HIV/AIDS transmission.Therefore,it is recommended to treat patients with HIV/AIDS timely and to reduce the contact with HIV/AIDS patients and take effective preventive measures for AIDS defence.