| The prediction and prevention of coal and gas is the first of all of outburst mines. The accurate prediction method and the reasonable prediction index not only can reduce the harm of coal and gas outburst but also can provide basis for rational design. Methods of field test combing with theory analysis, Under the engineering background of coal and gas outburst in Zhang Cun Coal mine working face, on the outstanding face of coal and gas outburst prediction sensitive indicators and their thresholds and optimal interval are studied.Established the weighted grey target decision model of multi-attribute, by solving the model that the outburst of coal and gas outburst prediction of three individual indicators are ranked Delta Δh2>q>S, single index does not adapt to the use of the index is S, points out that the sensitive index for Δh2, q. Improved weighted grey target decision model of multi index comprehensive index is established for the prediction of coal and gas outburst of F’. The 21 decision evaluation scheme and effect of vector distance to target center, that F’critical value ranking, ranking the first is F’=400, parallel second F’= 380 and 390, F’theory of optimal critical value is 400, followed by 390 and 380. The grey multi-level and multi index weighted interval of coal and gas outburst prediction index critical interval number related decision-making model, according to a decision model to obtain the optimal interval F’critical values for [350,400], based on a decision the optimal interval are carried out on the two levels of decision evaluation, the optimal interval for [370,380]. The above two models of critical value has a cross F’= 380 is the optimal threshold, which can ensure the close distance to target center and the falls in the optimal range.By predicting the work site of the mine coal and gas outburst verified F’comprehensive index and its critical value rationality, prediction of coal and gas outburst on the site has guiding significance. |
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