The Analysis Of Price Behavior In Chinese Carbon Market

Since the reform and opening up,China has become one of the fastest growing countries in the world,but the extensive mode of economic development not only makes our country faces increasingly serious environmental pollution problems,but also makes our country become the country which has the highest carbon intensity in the world.Therefore,the sustainable development of low-carbon economy is an inevitable choice in the current economic environment.Carbon emissions trading market is mandatory under the policy,based on the artificially designed carbon allowance trading mechanism.The establishment of the carbon market has made carbon emissions a new asset,and the companies with high emission reductions can sell carbon allowance,while those with low emission efficiency will need to purchase carbon allowance to meet the mandatory emission reduction obligations.In recent years,carbon emissions trading system has gradually go towards the world from the EU ETS of the European Union,supporting the development of low-carbon economy strongly.At present,carbon finance has become the forefront of the innovation of financial services.The commercialization and marketization of carbon emission rights will create new impetus for economy while promoting the emission reducing of enterprises,and provide a new way for investors to spread risk.Carbon allowance is not only a carbon asset owned by a enterprise,but also a target of performance,therefore has unique price behaviors.Performance companies have different trading positions and strategies with investors in the carbon market.Although investors can only profit from the carbon price changes,but long-term holdings of carbon allowance in essence provide financing support for the enterprise’s investment in reducing emissions.However,combined with historical experience,both EU ETS in Europe and China’s various pilot areas have repeatedly appeared abnormal changes in carbon prices.For example,EU ETS has experienced three carbon prices plummeted,Chongqing as the carbon market since June 19,2014 officially launched until July 21,2016 just 29 trading days exist,and the average transaction price by 30.74 yuan / ton down to 10 yuan / ton.Hubei carbon market in July 15,2016 for three consecutive trading days to reach the decline in carbon prices.These market outlook is not conducive to the healthy and stable development of the carbon market.Therefore,before the establishment of the united national carbon market the following questions must be answered: Whether value investment is encouraged in Chinese carbon market? What is the role that individual investors could play in carbon trading? How does the investor’s trading interval and psychological expectations affect the price behavior of carbon allowance?Based on the Zipf method,the price behavior of carbon allowance under different transaction interval and expected return shows that Chinese pilot carbon market has the problem of price failure and cannot carry out value investment,with encouraging frequent transactions and full of atmosphere of speculative.Therefore,while establishing the united national carbon market,environment of economy under the situation of "China’s New Normal" should be well thought,then focusing on building dynamic mechanism of allowance supply,guiding the price expectations,developing the secondary market and accelerating the development of derivatives market of carbon allowance,improving the price of carbon market function,understanding the role government should play in the carbon market correctly,improving laws and regulations,protecting the right of traders,giving more confidence to the market,for better encouraging of reduce emissions,through the gradual increase in the proportion of distribution of carbon allowances.