The Impact Of Population-related Factors On Carbon Emissions In Beijing By STIRPAT Model

Climate change has become one of the most tremendous problems in the world nowadays.There is no doubt that global warming mainly driving by carbon emissions has affected the survival and development of human beings.As the biggest carbon emitter and the most populous country in the world,China is now facing the huge challenge in carbon emission reduction and energy conversation.At present,more than half of the population live in the urban areas in China,moreover,urban areas are blamed to be the main contributor of carbon emissions and energy consumption.A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level,comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare.Therefore,this paper analyses the impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing,in order to provide some energy conservation and emission reduction strategies for the policer maker.First of all,this paper analyses the current condition and trends of population,economy,consumption and carbon emissions in Beijing.Then,the STIRPAT(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology)model incorporating PLS(partial least squares)regression method are employed to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing.The results are as follows:(1)The variables of A,Pf,Pu,Pw,Pa have positive impacts on carbon emissions,while EI,Ph and Py negatively do.According to the VIP value,the influencing factors are ranked in descending order as: Pu,Ph,EI,A,Pf,Py,Pw,Pa.(2)Population-related factors are strongly related with rapid increase of carbon emissions in Beijing,among which,urbanization is the dominant driver.Regarding population age structure,shrinking young population,continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures.Meanwhile,shrinking household size boosts the discharge of carbon emissions.Moreover,the expanding floating population is an important contributor of carbon emissions.(3)Improvement of consumption level greatly contribute to increasing carbon emissions.Industry energy intensity is the key inhibitory factor.Although the reduction of industry energy intensity can’t offset the emissions by other drivers,it still plays a crucial role in emission mitigation.Based on the results,in order to achieve the goal of carbon emission,Beijing government should advocate green and low-carbon lifestyles and promote clean energy consumption.Besides,it is essential to take measures to improve population quality.