Study On Maintenance Strategy Of Oil&Gas Corrosive Pipeline Based On Survival Analysis

Corrosion is the key factor to cause damage for the Oil-Gas pipe-line,which will reduce the residual strength,shorten the remaining life of pipe-line,maintenance and operating costs;Therefore,there are important economic and social value of life change and Maintenance Countermeasure Research of pipe-line corrosion.For the remaining life prediction and maintenance reliability to solve the problem of corrosion of oil and gas pipe-line,this article launches the Gamma process,the Inverse Gauss process survival analysis model to predict the remaining life of pipe-line and Optimization Research of pipe-line maintenance which based on Markov modeling maintenance action of multiple corrosion of pipe-line leakage fault,the main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)In order to realize the economic optimization of periodic maintenance of Oil-Gas transportation corrosive pipeline,this paper puts forward the method of pipeline residual life prediction and maintenance strategy optimization based on gamma process and reliability theory.Firstly,the Gamma process is used to fit the change rule of the corrosion depth of the pipeline.Secondly,the residual life prediction model of the corrosion pipeline is established,the expected residual life is calculated.Finally,the maintenance degree,the preventive maintenance maximum and the average residual life are optimized variable,the expected cost rate of the minimum target for the maintenance of decision-making optimization model to determine the best number of maintenance and the expected cost rate.(2)In order to provide the optimal maintenance plan for pipeline safetymanagement,this paper establishes the model of the Inverse Gaussian-State Space corrosion degradation process and the maintenance decision optimization model of oil and gas pipeline.Firstly,the model of the Inverse Gaussian-State Space degradation process is established according to the corrosion mechanism.Secondly,the EM-PF method is used to estimate the model parameters,then the residual life is predicted.Finally,according to the optimization model of the corrosion pipeline maintenance decision,maintenance replacement time and minimum cost.(3)In order to study the optimization of corrosive Oil-Gas pipelines in stochastic and probabilistic risk,a stochastic model based on fault-prone corrosion pipeline is established.First,we use the Wei-bull distribution to calculate the transition probability of each life cycle according to the wall thickness.Secondly,we establish the regular maintenance procedure.Finally,the Monte Carlo simulation model is used to determine the expected increase of the depth of the corrosion defect.As a basic research on corrosion modeling and simulation of Oil-Gas pipelines,this paper provides a new perspective and method for the further study of corrosion of Oil-Gas pipelines,which can help to deepen the remaining life and optimize maintenance strategy.The knowledge based on the Gamma process,the survival analysis model of the Inverse Gaussian process and the maintenance model based on the leak failure,the case analysis shows that it’s certain practicality and be helpful to improve the safety management level mechanism of Oil-Gas pipeline,reduce casualties.