A Study On The Realistic Effect And Potential Effect Of The Emission Trading Policy Of Sulfur Dioxide In China’s Pilot Provinces And Cities

China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal as well as the largest country in the emissions of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide.With the rapid development of economy,the energy structure will not change in the short term.In order to achieve a win-win development between economy and environment,China has gradually carried out the emission trading policy of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide.This paper aims at studying the effect of pilot activities of the long-term sulfur dioxide emission trading policy.Hence,the author analyzes the economic and emission reduction effect of emission trading policy through realistic and potential effect respectively of China’s pilot cities and provinces.First,this paper makes qualitative analysis about the basic Information of the emission trading policy activities in pilot provinces and cities,and concludes the trading model,effect of pilot activities and problems in different provinces and cities.The next,the paper uses difference-in-difference model to measure the output and emission reduction effect under the emission trading policy relative to the mandatory emission reduction policies,using the industrial output and industrial sulfur dioxide in 30 provinces and cities from 2000 to 2014 as the object of study.Moreover,the author uses the directional distance function based on the environmental technology to measure the potential output and emission reduction effect under the mandatory emission reduction policies and emission trading policy,basing the sampled data in 6 pilot provinces and cities from 2002 to 2014.As a result,the author builds a dynamic action analysis model and presets different output and emission reduction goals to analyze the dynamic effect of potential economy and emission reduction under the emission trading policy and seek the most suitable path of development under the emission trading policy of sulfur dioxide.The research shows that(1)the emission trading policy didn’t achieve the output and emission reduction effect,which turns out that the emission trading policy didn’t play a role in increasing the industrial output and reducing the emission of industrial sulfur dioxide under available condition.(2)The author finds that the emission trading policy achieved the goal of potential output and emission reduction effect to a certain extent by analyzing the potential effect.It shows that the emission trading policy,relative to the mandatory emission reduction policies,could increase the industrial output and reduce the emission of industrial sulfur dioxide in terms of the potential analysis.Furthermore,the potential value advantages of emission trading policy will become clearer and clearer with time going on.On the basis of this,propose policy recommendations about emission trading policy.