| With the advantages of burning clean and easy to use,nature gas has been one of the most important kinds of energy in people's daily life.According to the characteristics of natural gas pipeline in China,this paper did quantitative risk assessment of natural gas pipeline in three aspects,respectively failure probability,failure consequences and life risk acceptance.A set of natural gas pipeline quantitative risk assessment theory and methods has been formed.In terms of pipeline failure probability,this paper quoted European EGIG database to determine the basic failure probability of risk factors and modified it based on the data of natural gas pipeline in our country.This paper used the the fault tree analysis method to describe logical relationships between the basic events and calculated the failure probability of the natural gas pipeline by FreeFta software.When it comes to pipeline failure consequence analysis,the event tree analysis method was used to analyze the probability of various failure modes after failure,and the diffusion of the leaks was simulated by PHAST software.The lethal probability was calculated by using the natural gas pipeline failure damage model.Referring to the acceptance of risk,the calculation model of individual risk and social risk of natural gas pipeline failure is established.The individual risk is evaluated by ALARP criterion,and the social risk is evaluated by FN curve.Then this piper introduced foreign risk acceptable standards.Combined with China's actual situation,this paper has put forward China's risk acceptance criteria.In the aspect of calculation,the feasibility of the quantitative risk assessment method proposed in this paper is verified by the calculation of the individual risk and social risk value of an active natural gas pipeline in China's coastal areas.By comparing the computing result,this paper summarized the results and the innovations of this research,and pointed out the questions requiring to be further researched. |
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