Safwty Evaluation And Analysis Of Tailings Dam Based On-line Observation

During the operation of the tailings dam,the on-line observation of the stability of the dam and the timely forecast of the dam are very important to ensure the safety and stability of the dam.However,the observation system of dam is affected by the external environment and the accuracy of its own sensors,making the observation information fuzzy and uncertain,resulting in the mapping relationship between safety index and safety level is complex and changeable.And the existing safety evaluation model of the tailings dam often neglects the people’s avoidance and loss psychology,which makes the evaluation result and the actual situation error.The possibility set value mapping can deal with the complex and multivariable mapping relations between information,and the foreground theory can reflect the decision maker’s avoidance of loss psychology.Therefore,the upstream tailings dam as the research object,based on prospect theory and possibility theory,to establish the qualitative analysis of tailings dam safety evaluation model of dam safety,safety index according to the observation data from the local to the whole to make quantitative analysis of the tailings dam,which makes the evaluation results more effective and accurate forecast and early warning.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of safety index observation information on the possibility of using possibility distribution structure method to characterize the distribution of safety indicators;according to the operation cycle characteristics of tailings dam,using the method of the natural frequency and rheology mutation theory combined with the safety grade of the tailings dam in classification and characterization.(2)According to the complex mapping relationship between security index and security level,it is possible to set up the possibility set valued mapping relationship to deal with the complex fuzzy uncertainty problem between information.(3)The weight calculation in the model based on the prospect theory takes account of the correlation between the safety indexes,so that the model can reflect the actual situation better,and it can overcome the decision maker’s psychology of seeking profits and avoiding losses while evaluating the safety.(4)Taking the spring water gully tailings dam as an example,the validity of the model is verified.The evaluation results show that the possibility set value mapping reflects the mapping relationship between safety index and safety level,and the prospect theory is introduced into the safety evaluation model,making the result of safety evaluation more practical and effective,and improving the accuracy of safety assessment and prediction.The research contents of this paper provide theoretical basis for tailing pond safety evaluation and management,and provide guidance and reference for the relevant national competent departments to implement safety management of tailing pond.