Modeling Study On Urban Residents’ Route Choice Behaviors Based On Bounded Rationality

The urban transportation system contains extreme complexity.With the acceleration of urbanization,the travel of urban residents becoming more and more difficult,traffic congestion associated with a series of social problem and environmental problem that it provoked becomes one of the city diseases which should be solved as soon as possible,meanwhile,the situation that government failure in traffic management is urgent to turn around.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the travel behavior to seek reasonable guide strategy for travelers’ decision-making,which is benefit for the diagnosis and treatment of existing problems in urban traffic and makes planning and implementation of travel demend management scientific in order to ease traffic problems.The research on urban travelers’ route choice behavior has been the key problem in the field of urban transportation.Firstly,the dissertation analyze the formation process of travelers’ behavior and the psychological process of travelers’ decision-making in behavioral science perspective.Based on the investigation of large amount of literature,the factors influencing the path choice behavior are summarized and divided into two categories,which reveals variables and latent variables.Introducing personality traits and risk pereference and so on as latent variables in detail,the paper adopt structural equation model to establish latent variables model and study the relationship of latent variables as well as the mechanism between latent variables and path selection.Urban residents’ route choice questionnaire is designed to do empirical research on route choice behavior.Secondly,under the hypothesis of bounded rationality,this paper analyze and model the travelers’ route choice behavior based on cumulative prospect theory.In order to describe the fact of path selection,two reference points are chose in the model,then the method how to obtain them and the practical significance of them are given.Moreover,after establishing the value function and the decision weighting function,travel route choice model are established.To validate the route choice model,an example of a simple network is given to analyze the influence of the result of path selection when reliability is different.Finally,on the basis of agent theory,roads and travlers are treated as agents respectively in the simulation model,which is designed according to the simulation flow.This paper discusses the curve of travel parameter in simulation and makes the process of path selection visual by NetLogo 6.0 software.This paper does research on travelers’ route choice behavior by normative research and empirical analysis.Modeling and simulation of urban residents’ travel behavior based on rational behavior assumptions and research method broadens the horizon of researchers on route choice in the transportation field and provides theorical foundation for traffic system management and optimization.