Analysis On The Predictive Model Of Schistosomiasis Infection In The Population Of Xingzi County And Analysis Of Related Factors In The Infection Rate Of Schistosomiasis Patients

Objective:(1)To analyze the change of infection rate and using different time series models to predict the trend of infection rate of schistosomiasis patients in Xingzi County,and to provide a reference for the follow-up development of new schistosomiasis prevention strategies(2)To analyze risk factors of schistosomiasis patients in Xingzi County of Jiujiang City,and then to provide reference for the rational allocation of schistosomiasis control resources and the suitability of prevention and control strategies.Methods:(1)The annual monitoring data of Xingzi County of schistosomiasis prevention and control from 2005 to 2014,and the changes of population infection rate were analyzed by trend Chi-square tests.(2)Five different time series models were used to predict the trend of infection rate in schistosomiasis patients.(3)Using Chi-square tests and Logistic regression model to analyze the changes of risk factors of schistosomiasis in 2005 and 2008 in Xingzi County.Results:(1)Crowd schistosomiasis infection rate from 14.68% in 2005 fell to 0.41% in 2014,and the infection rates from 2005(14.68%)to 2009(0.44%)are present obvious downward trend,but in 2010(1.38%)and 2011(0.97%),schistosomiasis infection rates rebound,and then began to present a downward trend in Xingzi County.(2)In this study,the simple moving average model(n=2)has the best fitting effect,while the Second Degree Moving Average has the worst fitting effect.The 2015 predictions of Holt Exponential Smoothing model,Simple Moving Average model(n=2)(n=3),Weighted Moving Average model and Second Degree Moving Average are respectively 0.32%,0.29%,0.29%,0.31%,and-0.23.%,Compared with 2015,the infection rate of schistosomiasis was 0.13%,The difference between the predicted and actual values of the simple moving average model was the smallest,and the difference between the predicted and actual values of the Second Degree Moving Average was the largest.(3)The univariate chi-square shows that in 2005,there was a difference in schistosomiasis infection rates among different sexes,occupations,and educational backgrounds.In 2008,the infection rate of schistosomiasis only differed among different occupations;Logistic regression model showed that the male and fishermen in 2005 were Risk factors for schistosomiasis in the population.In 2008,fishermen were the risk factors for schistosomiasis,and in 2005 and 2008,occupational fishermen were identified as risk factors for schistosomiasis in Xingzi County.Conclusion:Prevention and control of schistosomiasis,the main source of infection prevention,has had a significant effect on the prevention and control of schistosomiasis in Xingzi County.Although schistosomiasis fluctuates in some years,it generally shows a downward trend.Therefore,it needs to continue to adhere to comprehensive prevention and control measures in the future schistosomiasis prevention work.All the five time series models indicated that the infection rate of schistosomiasis was decreasing in future.In 2005 and 2008,occupational fishermen were identified as risk factors for schistosomiasis,so it is still important to pay attention to the fishermen in the future.