The Model Construction Of Transfer Price About Football Forward Players In China Football Association Super League

The research on the transfer fee will be based on methods of documents and expert interviews,as well as based on the theory of multi index comprehensive evaluation method.And the subject will be 275 football forward players in CSL in 2012-2015 seasons.Correlation analysis and regression model method will be used to explore the factors that influence transfer price of the super forward players,and regression equation will be used to predict the transfer price.This research includes two steps: First,to provide data support for the follow-up study,it is necessary to determine the accuracy of the super forward players' transfer price evaluated by the Transfermarkt.de;Second,to explore the factors affecting the player's transfer price,a regression model need to be established on the basis of nine indicators of three dimensions which are the player's own characteristics,the competition performance and the external evaluation.In the study of the price accuracy estimated by the German transfer market website,233 cases of 2005 year to 2015 year were classified,including 84 super Chinese striker cases and 149 foreign striker cases.According to Pearson correlation coefficient,the results show that the correlation coefficient of CSL strikers' transfer fee and transfer price is R=0.747,P<0.01,and the transfer price is 1.427 times of transfer fee.Based on a moment of literature,nine indicators were selected to evaluate the transfer price of 275 CSL forward players in the 2012-2015 season,they are age called X1,the number of dominant feet called X2,the number of goals called X3,the shooting number called X4,the number of successful passes called X5,the ability to compete called X6,coach evaluation called X7,expert evaluation called X8,public evaluation called X9,and the transfer price for players is called Yf.By examining the linear relationship between index and transfer price as well as the collinearity between indexes,regression models can be established.The results show that six indicators in the regression model P<0.05,they are the number of dominant feet,the number of goals,the number of successful passes,coach evaluation,expert evaluation and public evaluation.The regression equation is : Yf=447076.530X2+60796.928X3+838.693X5-341.009X7+18313.074X8+0.127X9-1635616.568.In this model,the correlation between CSL forward strikers' transfer price and the actual transfer fee is 0.726,and this comes to the following conclusion:Transfermarkt.de can accurately assess the transfer price of CSL forward players.It can predict the transfer fee of foreign players in the CSL.But it can not predict the transfer fee of Chinese players in the CSL which is probably because there is no regularity in domestic striker's transfer fee.The number of dominant feet,the number of goals,the number of successful passes,coach evaluation,expert evaluation and public evaluation are important indicators of the transfer price,when it comes to transfer of CSL players,it is necessary to focus on the impact of these six indicators on the transfer price.Of course,the influence of age on the transfer price needs to be further studied.The regression model based on the number of dominant feet,the number of goals,the number of successful passes,coach evaluation,expert evaluation and public evaluation can not fully predict the transfer fee.