The Analysis On Population Aging And Demographic Economic Effects Of Population Aging In Xinjiang

In the 2015 census communique,Xinjiang aging population coefficient was7.21%,marking the Xinjiang officially entered the aging society as the centerand the core area of the Silk Road in Xinjiang,the future economic development and social stability will be the focus of attention,and demographic factors will become the economy can not be ignored in the development of society,The aging of population has a profound impact on the economic and social.Therefore,this paper analyzes the development process of the population aging in Xinjiang,and analyzes the economic effects of population aging in Xinjiang to alleviate the problem of aging.This paper studies the economic effect of population aging is the direct effect and indirect effect of population aging on economic development,the direct effect refers to the aging of the population directly produce positive or negative effect without other variables.Indirect effect means that the population aging has positive or negative effects on Xinjiang's economy through the way of material capital,human capital and industrial structure.Firstly,this paper introduces the current situation of population aging in Xinjiang,which is described from three aspects: the whole,the region and the nation,and analyzes the causes of population aging in Xinjiang from the perspective of population.Secondly,from the time dimension Methods descriptive statistics show,Xinjiang since 1990-2015 years aging population development level and speed,and changes in population structure dependency ratio,summed up the Xinjiang population aging has different degree of aging in urban and rural areas,ethnic differences,"old before getting rich" and "not prepared to" feature,at the same time for the development of a better grasp of the aging of the population through the international population prediction software,to the sixth census data the original data set,low,medium and high fertility level different from 2011-2040 in Xinjiang,the population aging forecast.From the dimensions of space,using spatial statistics,evolution map of population aging space,results show that the aging population in Xinjiang is in the Northern Tianshan Mountains as the development mode of concentric circle to expand around the circle,and according to the Monica index,the aging population ofXinjiang spatial autocorrelation experience changes weakened after reinforcement.The spatial distribution will further show non agglomeration equilibrium.Then,in order to study the economic effect of Xinjiang population aging population,the time span of 1990-2015 years,selection of economic growth as explanatory variables,dependency ratio,capital stock level,the level of human capital and industrial structure as explanatory variables through the establishment of VAR model,the direct effect on the economic growth of the research trend of population aging.After stationarity test,cointegration test,impulse response function of IFR empirical research,the economic growth and the dependency ratio,capital stock level,the level of human capital,industrial structure has a long-term equilibrium relationship,and from the direct effect of the long term elderly dependency ratio and population dependency ratio economy is negative,the young dependency ratio,the physical capital stock level and the industrial structure and the level of human capital to economic growth is a positive effect.Analysis of the indirect effects of population aging on Xinjiang's economy through pulse function.In the short term,there is a significant positive effect on the physical capital stock,but in the long run,the aging of the population is the negative effect on the physical capital stock.The effect of old age support on human capital is more volatile,but the negative effect is more significant.Elderly dependency on the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure has a weak positive effect.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the aging of the population in Xinjiang.The importance of human capital,mining of the elderly population of human capital;the adjustment of industrial structure,economic development efforts to cope with aging;the implementation of two-child policy,the pace of slowing aging;promote the population flow,optimizing the distribution of population.