Relationship Between Population Intergenerational Structure And Real Estate Price

This article explores the influence of population intergenerational on house prices based on the theory of life cycle.According to the theory of life cycle savings that saving is related to age,rational consumers usually maximize the utility of their life and decide their current consumption based on their own labor income and the possibility of inheritance and other incomes and future consumption levels And savings,which in turn affect the investment approach and decision-making.In this paper,we use the intergenerational structure of developed countries such as the United States,Japan,Britain and Germany to prove that there is a certain relationship between the trend of housing prices and the intergenerational structure of the population.Then we can give an example of China's population generation structure data.However,this theory can not explain China's real housing prices.After that,using the OLS regression model,the influence of the elderly dependency ratio on housing prices in the short term is 14.33%.In the long run,The impact of housing prices accounted for 31.1%.The results show that the increase of elderly dependency ratio will cause the declining house price in our country,which is the driving force of the declining house prices in our country.However,with the increase of the population aging degree,this power gradually becomes larger.At present,China's population is no longer a pyramid shape.Year may result in housing prices and supply and demand reversed.Many factors affect the price,the author confirmed in this article intergenerational factors.From our country's special national conditions:the rate of urbanization,the net population flow,the size of the property system is also some of the characteristics of the real estate market in our country.In terms of the rate of urbanization and the net flow of population,in some cities where there are many job opportunities,migrant workers want to become urban residents or earn wages,some of whom are just needed for housing in the city;some graduating college students stay in the north Guangzhou,Shenzhen and other first-tier cities,this part of the city is just the need,they are part of the rigid demand to support housing prices.China's current completion of housing because of the size of the property system differences and housing demolition and other factors do not have an accurate data.Professor Gan Li(2012)from Southwestern University of Finance and Economics did some research:Now overcapacity in the real estate sector and 1/3 of the current production capacity will meet the demand for long-term equilibrium in the future.This article also calculates the vacancy rate of housing as calculated from a nationwide perspective.Assuming that people have a home,the vacancy rate is about 15%.Internationally,the vacancy rate of 15%is basically in line with the normal level.However,in the long run,China has implemented its family planning policy for several decades.The post-90s population has shown a clear downward trend.In the next two or three decades,if the population continues to reduce population inflection points,it may cause a sharp increase in the vacancy rate of houses.Subsequent housing supply will focus.on improving demand or vigorously develop and revitalize housing stock,such as "rent and sell the same rights",strictly regulate the rental market and protect the rights and interests of tenants.The current market there are some irregularities,the state has also found in Shanghai knock knocking,sun discs and other speculation housing prices means,the Housing and Construction Department in various places have been investigated and dealt with the sale of a number of property developers,the housing prices in some cities there is a certain bubble,for Misleading,deceptive consumer real estate agents need to strictly control the illegal means.The opportunity to write this essay lies in the declining birth rate and the long-term family planning policy of the post-1990 generation,and the prices have been slowly rising or flattening out to high prices.The development of the real estate market can drive the development of more than 40 industries.The investment of fixed assets in the real estate industry in the fixed assets investment in the whole society should not be underestimated.The construction houses bring about a large number of jobs,especially migrant workers,and the construction period is long and dependent A lot of money.But a city's pillar industry can never be the real estate industry.In order to minimize the impact of potential social risks and financial risks in our country,this paper firstly illustrates the current vacancy rate of housing in our country through the processing of statistical data.Through the construction of OLS model,we use mathematical analysis to prove that population structure factors can influence Changes in housing prices,and the emergence of a population inflection point after the demographic changes in China will result in housing prices fell in some cities.Finally,based on the above findings,feasible policy recommendations,such as regulating the housing leasing market and registering the Internet through real estate,will help the government to fully understand the stock of real estate and the number of houses owned by residents,extinguish some of the speculation,and make policies in advance Regulate the implementation of preparation programs to ease the housing prices in the fall of unnecessary economic conflicts and other policy options.