| Due to the drastic changes in local climate conditions caused by global climate change,coastal cities are greatly affected by Tropical Cyclone(TC)and secondary disasters due to their unique geographical location.So in this background premise and detailed analysis of the TC activity characteristics,can effectively forecast of TC rainfall,and build the TC under the influence of river basin flood control optimization scheduling model,make the best use of existing water conservancy project,make up the binhai city flood control ability,is worthy of further study of realistic problems.Taking qinzhou city as an example,this article first analyzes the characteristics of the activity of the TC(TTC)in the beibu gulf,and holds the change of its activities and the future trend.Secondly,the combined probability distribution model of TC(RTC),which caused rainfall in qinzhou,can be used to predict the future rainfall of qinzhou city in the future according to the TC wind speed monitoring.Finally with qin sluice of young above basin reservoir as the research object,with the ability to build the TC under the influence of reservoir group of optimal operation of flood control,improve the level of dispatching decision-making,maximum mining qin river's flood control capacity of river basin water conservancy projects,improve the urban flood safety along the coast.Best path according to the 302 games in 1956-2016 TTC,extract the TC frequency,source location and intensity,the TC(beibu gulf)maximum wind speed and maximum average wind speed,early entry position and wind speed,spin,spin,activities,track 10 groups of key indicators,combined with the SST and ENSO Nino3.4/4 areas,the PDO,WP data,analysis of its and the intrinsic relationship between the TC index and moving regularity of years trace,build the beibu gulf TC affected zone climatology model in detail.Pearson correlation analysis showed that the SST of Nino4 district was the main mode of TTC activity,followed by ENSO and PDO,and the TC frequency was mainly concentrated in El Nino(La Nina)year.Cumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall,sliding T test results show that TTC frequency of mutations in 1996,and a marked increase in SST exacerbated the TTC and CLTC a significant reduction in the frequency of the future trend,but the TC wind speed is enhanced significantly.Morlet wavelet analysis shows that the TTC has a cycle alternating pattern of about 26a,and predicts that the period from 2019 to 2024 is the high frequency of TC,and the low frequency period from 2025 to 2027.SST increase(decrease)with Nino4 area,at the beginning of spin later(earlier),frequency of less(more),the activity short(long),life too short(long),the largest annual average wind speed and influence the beibu gulf wind speed is larger(smaller),and the TC activity toward as a whole.Trace changes significantly,94.4%TC generated in active period(6?10 months),5.6%from the active period(4,5,November),empty window period for(March 12 to the following year),which in November CLTC generated STY and SuperTY chance to rise significantly.The change of TC login month is characterized by the return path characteristics of beibu gulf,guangdong and beibu bay.In the month of La Nina(El Nino),TC is registered in the east(west)of 111.781,and the wind speed is large(small).Study found that the Gumbel distribution,adopted by the Frechet distribution and Weibull distribution,the Gamma distribution,GEV,Boolean(Burr)distribution,a total of 6 class 7 kinds of probability distribution model,suitable for qinzhou rainfall caused by TC biggest about probability model for the Burr distribution,suitable for maximum 1 h precipitation probability model for GEV distribution,suitable for maximum 3/6/12/24 h rain cumulative probability distribution model of cumulative rainfall for Weibull distribution;(3 p)GH,Frank,Clyton and AMH are four common Archimedean Copula models.The joint probability model for maximum wind speed and maximum 1h rainfall is Frank Copula,while others are GH Copula.According to the results,the simulation of the combined probability distribution model of wind and rain was consistent with the actual situation,and it was able to predict the TC in qinzhou city in 2017.According to the flood damage to qinzhou in recent 10 years,choose the joint return period is 425.9 years wind and rain in 2008,no.14,20080924 performances of TC Nesat cause floods,4.7 years in 2013 for the TC 6 Rumbia caused by over 20130702 flood,358.4 years in 2014 floodwaters triggered the 20140718 session of the 9th TC Rammasun,analysis and calculation qin sluice above river basin flood channel of young of calculus and region.Based on the flood control optimization and dispatching system of reservoir group,DPSA algorithm is adopted to solve the combined flood control optimal dispatching model,and the combined flood control optimization scheduling is carried out under the influence of TC in the above watershed of qinjiang youth sluice.Parallel reservoir group of optimal operation of flood control results show that when the qin sluice of young above basin in TC heavy rainfall caused by the flooding events and for spirit east reservoir is a large reservoir,at close range and distance protection target lingshan county town,the advantages of can carry on the good cutting edge to the lingshan county section and wrong peak.Spirit for controlling the east reservoir research area is only 7.2%,other 92.8%range large flow control area,and there are only two seats in the upstream tributaries and medium-sized reservoir control area is lesser,and rely on the saddle arterial bypass west large reservoirs,reservoir groups of hydrological stations and young 1u flood control section cutting edge effect is limited,therefore in this study the reservoir group of youth difficult to safeguard is located in the downstream of sluices qinnan flood safety. |
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