Application Of Grey Prediction Model In Groundwater Mineralization Of Jize Countyin Handan City

Jize County is located in the eastern plain area of Handan City and belongs to the North China Plain.Groundwater is an important irrigation and water supply source in the region.Predictive analysis of the regional groundwater salinity will help to understand the trends of groundwater quality in the region,provide basis for the rational development of regional groundwater and ecological environmental protection,and promote the ecological restoration and environmental improvement of the groundwater in the North China Plain.It is of great significance to carry out the sustainable development and utilization of groundwater.Based on the analysis of regional geography and hydrogeological data,this paper applies the grey prediction system theory to predict the degree of groundwater salinity in Jize County and establishes a grey system prediction model GM(1,1)and GM(1,N).Two prediction models predict the degree of groundwater salinity in Chengguan in 2016~2020 in JiZe County.The groundwater salinity in the grey prediction model is the target factor,and the groundwater level,groundwater extraction,and precipitation are influencing factors.The grey system model is calculated and the prediction results are compared with the multiple linear regression and BP neural network prediction model results.The results show that the comprehensive accuracy of the grey prediction model is superior to the multivariate linear regression and BP neural network prediction model.In order to further explore the development trend of groundwater mineralization degree in Jize County in Handan City in the next five years,under the premise of ensuring that the existing groundwater mining methods and the exploitation of groundwater are not changed,a grey forecasting model is used for prediction.Finally,the paper proposes that the groundwater environmental protection measures for the region should be based on the fundamentals of efficient use of groundwater,rational planning of groundwater exploitation,improvement of water rights and water fee reform systems,and development of groundwater research work,and reduction of human factors damage.Solving the groundwater environmental problems in the study area will provide a basis for alleviating the further deterioration of the groundwater environment and protecting the water ecological environment.