Real-Time Dispatch Of Water Resources Based On Dry Season Runoff Forecast

The sustainable development and utilization of water resources is related to the global development strategy.On the one hand,there is a shortage of water resources in China,on the other hand,there are some bad phenomena such as unreasonable allocation of water resources,low utilization rate and serious waste of water resources.How to adjust water resources and alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is of great significance to the economic development and the improvement of environmental quality in areas where water resources are short.At present,water use management is generally based on the water use plan to plan the water consumption of each item,the traditional water use plan is static,for the actual use of water is only a macro concept.However,the actual water use process(especially agricultural irrigation in the dry season)usually varies with the changes of hydrology,meteorology,crop growth and so on.Therefore,the dynamic implementation of water use plan can more practical guide water management.In this paper,a prediction model of runoff in dry season is established.The parameters of the model are determined by recursive least square method,and the real-time prediction of runoff is carried out.The precision of the model is evaluated by NSE coefficient.The real time forecast model is applied to the Liu Jia Zhuang hydrological station,and the forecast of dry season runoff proves the validity of the model.According to the results of real time monthly runoff forecast of Liujiazhuang Station in Qingzhang River and Tianqiao Station in Zhuozhang River,incoming water process in the future dry season is determined,combined with the diversion canal(Hongqi canal,Yuejin cana,big Yuefeng canal,small Yuefeng canal)in the four major irrigation areas downstream,as well as two major reservoirs(Yuecheng Reservoir and Dongvushi Reservoir),are used to carry out dynamic real-time water supply regulation of "three districts and ten counties" in the eastern plain of Handan city and "one district and two counties" in the western mountainous area through the formulation of dynamic dispatching scheme.The results show that the water shortage item in Handan city is agricultural water(the process of water shortage is more uniform)and the other water items can be satisfied.The real-time regulation process of runoff in dry season in Handan City is a complex water resource allocation process with multi-water sources,multi-users,multi-function water use and multi-scheduling schemes,and it is also a stochastic water scheduling process.Through the case analysis of dynamic dispatching in Handan City,this paper provides a reference for the management of water resources in other areas.