| This research presents a GIS-based risk-assessment model for the estimation of hydro-geological hazard risks associated with China Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)projects in Hunza Basin,Pakistan.The impact of five hydro-geological hazards are analyzed:1)river floods;2)Glacial Lake Outburst Floods(GLOF's);3)landslides;4)landmass movements(debris flow and rock falls)and 5)snow melt and rainfall runoff.The CPEC projects,for which the assessment was done,comprises Karakoram Highway(KKH),oil,gas pipeline,railway track and optic fiber.The methodology applied for particular hazards risk analysis first involved the assessment of each hazard extent and intensity through numerical modelling and mapping by Arc-GIS;second,the multi-hazard maps were used to create risk maps using Arc-GIS.The created maps are used in a risk assessment model as input layers along with areas at risk in the Hunza River Basin.The empirical relationship between hazards,vulnerability,and areas at risk are employed to obtain a combined risk assessment map of the Hunza Basin by multiplying the three risk components together.The final obtained raster risk map of the Hunza River Basin specifies that the very low risk,low risk,high risk and very high-risk classes are individually covering 2.2%(295 km2),28.77%(13412 km2),53.08%(7120 km2),and 15.92%(2136 km2)of the area.Hence,about 70%of the 13,403 km2 study area is at a high risk of hydro-geological hazards.The most vulnerable areas are settlements,roads networks,and agricultural lands whereas the low risk areas comprised of glaciated part of the basin.These results are consistent with the existing data and research on hydro-geological hazards in the Hunza area;however,the proposed model is a comprehensive reference not only for risk reduction threatening the CPEC infrastructure and local community,but also applicable elsewhere. |
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